Sunday, November 10, 2013

   Its been a long time since I have composed a blog and apologize for that. It is very tough during my work season to do such though will most definitely have more time moving forward and once again look forward to that, so lets get into it...
   I provided much talk about the *potential* of an East Coast storm in the works for the middle to latter half of next week. Its nothing more than I offer at any other potential that arrises. I had offered up two different scenarios at which potentially things could iron out and would issue a forecast the moment I felt one had validity over the other. That day came yesterday.
   All signals in recent days have been pointing to the arrival of an anomalously strong 1040mb Arctic High diving south and east from central Canada. This will push a storm off to the north of SNE with a strong trailing cold front approaching Monday. That 1040 high will be positioned off to our west and building during that time. A High Pressure system of that magnitude and strength will now be enough to squash or suppress the southern jet to allow for any moisture that would try to ride up the East Coast and phase with the northern energetic jet to phase well offshore of Southern New England to bring minimal to zero effect from that. That is not to say that this upper level pattern and setup will leave us uneventful.  As we approach Monday night into Tuesday as that huge High builds behind the cold front, the air will be so cold that a line of snow showers and squalls will break out *behind* the cold front along with gusty winds on the order of 25-35 mph. Travel for some across the Northeast will become a bit rough late Monday as squalls will reduce visibility at times. The potential is there for dustings to coatings and even a couple inches for areas hit the hardest. These squalls are often like thunderstorms and very hard to predict timing, location and intensity so watching radar and nowcasting becomes a necessity into Monday eve. Below is a graphic showing the setup and my thoughts as to the areas that may be impacted the greatest. 
One aspect of the forecast that has remained is the surge of cold air that will come down on the eastern side of High Pressure. Temperatures will continue to fall progressively until they bottom out Wednesday am. Many locations east of The Rockies will see their temperatures fall to 10-25° below their average for this time of year and the coldest 2nd week of November since 2003 for some in Southern New England. Get some fresh wood cut ready to throw in that fireplace and get ready for spiked heating bills. The good news is the pattern is fairly quick to swing right back towards moderating warmth as a trough begins to build out west with a ridge developing into the eastern US.
   In other news many in New England saw their first accumulating snows of the season this week, surely nothing to write home about for some but for others that 1st snow is just the time to write home......Always exciting ! My thoughts and prayers continue to be with the Philippines as they were devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan, one of the worst cyclones to ever make landfall anywhere across the globe in history.   ~Anthony

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