Thursday, June 4, 2015

SNE & Beyond Forecast Blog for June 4, 2015

Where to start....Well, lets recap May. Two significant headlines for the month for most of Southern New England. 1: Up until the final couple days many locations in the area were experiencing the driest May on record. Late rains squashed the reality of that occurring. 2: It was a very warm May ! In fact, the warmest on record for Hartford (Bradley Int. Airport) and 10th warmest for Boston (Logan Airport). Pretty impressive considering that February was the coldest on record for both cities. Now most SNE locations have gotten off to a very chilly start to June, especially coastal locations. In fact ,Boston is off to its coolest start 4 days in to June on record ! The pendulum keeps swinging this year. 
(click on all images for a larger view)
Short Term Forecast: Increasing clouds are moving into the region this eve and will continue to do so, especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike ahead of a developing storm system off the Carolina's that is slowly moving to the ENE. This system wont bring significant impacts to the region but Friday is certainly not as nice as today was with mostly cloudy skies developing for most. It looks mainly overcast the closer you move to the eastern and southeastern shores. Showers will move into southeast locations during the late afternoon and especially the evening hours and overnight into very early Saturday. 
Best chance of this but not limited to, is Cape Cod & the Islands where elevated precipitable water values may lead to some heavier showers and downpours. Some locations could see 1/2"-1" of rain from this. It is a close call and close shave though. There also is an outside chance at a rumble of thunder. Winds will be light and variable throughout the day. High temps will be near either side of 70° for most inland locations, will cooler reading near the coast in the upper 50's and 60's.
Saturday will feature some morning and early afternoon clouds, and even a few showers for SE Mass. but developing sunshine thereafter towards the late afternoon and early evening . You will notice humidity creeping up as well as early as Saturday morning. High temperatures will be warmer on Saturday , especially inland where many locations will near 80°. Areas near The CT River and Pioneer Valley could get into the low 80's.  We shall see. This depends highly on the amount of sunshine that develops. The shorelines will be much cooler with a NNE wind developing. One other thing to watch for is some developing gusty NNE winds for SE Mass & Cape Cod & the Islands. Gusts are likely to range between 25-35mph. 
Mid-Long Term Outlook: Sunday is looking dry with just some fair weather clouds developing during the afternoon hours. Winds light and variable. High's will top off in the 70's for most, but again, cooler at the shores. Increasing clouds Monday with the threat of showers and storms moving in to the region late evening ahead of a frontal boundary. The front looks to slow a bit approaching the shores so the showers/downpours and maybe some thunder should linger for central and especially eastern parts of the region into Tuesday morning. 
It appears as though starting Wednesday of next week , temperatures will warm quite a bit to the point that some locations may approach 90° by next Friday. That is a long way out there , so for now will just keep an eye on it. As of now the best shot for Thunder next week as we turn up the heat and humidity after hump day appears to be Thursday. 
Tropics: The 2015 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season started on Monday. We have already seen the formation of tropical Storm Ana. There were weak signs that Bill could be close to forming near the upcoming weekend,, but chances of that occurrence seem much lower than a few days ago. Though there still appears to be a slight chance at development into next wk as a closed low develops off the eastern seaboard and a broad surface low center. Ocean waters are quite warm to the south of Southern New England this late Spring so I will still keep an eye on this system. 
Meanwhile over in the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Blanca which was a category 4 storm just yesterday has run into an environment with increased shear and has cause here to weaken to a Cat 2 today. This is great news considering she has an eye on the Baja Peninsula. 
Below is a nice loop of the latest Infrared satellite of Hurricane Blanca. She is the first cat 2 storm to be near her current location since Hurricane Bud in 2012.

Thank you for reading !       ~Anthony S.