The cold is explainable due to an active northern stream coinciding with a North Atlantic Oscillation which predominately remains in a negative phase. The precipitation side is a bit more complex. Rumors have been flying of a potential storm Tuesday and Wednesday, and granted models for a time did indicate a minor to moderate snowfall around and south of The Massachusetts Turnpike for a time, in the end the very cold and dry air that has been over us seems to be winning this battle and will squash most if not all moisture to work with in advance of low pressure well to our south with this potential storm Tuesday into Wednesday. Even when you have what you think all the players are lined up for a potent coastal storm, not all things align the way they need to be. The weather works in strange ways, and seems as though the harder you try to figure it out, the more you are left scratching your head. There are always surprises though and more often than not a storm does “surprise” us more than it does when it is expected, or at least it seems that way to many I’m sure.
So the latest with this potential storm has a more zonal flow with the northern jet dominant and not able to tap into little Gulf of Mexico moisture that will be available and the dominating cold high pressure that will move off to the Northeast of Southern New England between now and when moisture starts to gather to our south and west will eventually hold most that moisture close and tight to northern flank of the precipitation shield as a WEAK low center passes south and east of our area Tuesday. There are some indications that at the last minute the trough will tilt just enough in response to blocking to swing the storm more to the north and perhaps intensify within close proximity to the Gulf of Maine in the open waters and throw back light precipitation near the coastlines or even a weak trough development connecting between that low and a weaker one off the north of the Great Lakes forming a band of ongoing light precipitation. This is yet to be seen or known, but a possibility nevertheless giving blocking trying to firmly establish right in time. To wrap it all up, chances are most if not all miss out on any snowfall other than a coating to an inch especially to the south and possibly to the east.
There is another potential for a similar setup next weekend that bears and will be watched as well along with the fact that signs continue to indicate a near normal or below normal December in the temperature department and an active storm pattern developing into at least early December with some swings likely which could only help in storm development. Lets all remember guys, it is VERY early in the game. Even for Boston, during our snowiest past winter seasons the first snow sometimes does not occur until mid -December and sometimes even holds of until early January. I feel many have become spoiled and expectations high especially the past few seasons with early , abnormal snowfalls. This is NOT the norm so to speak. So just hang in there. Meteorological Winter starts in 6 days with the official start to the Winter Solstice still over 3 weeks away. Thanks for reading guys ! ~Anthony