Thursday, November 1, 2012

#SNEwx *NEW BLOG** ... Not again !

Sandy is gone now but what she left was an area in shambles. My Thoughts and prayer continue to be with those affected on the East Coast..

So, Sandy is gone but her roots remain. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation ) was tanked during Sandy, perhaps the lowest in many many years along with a strong Greenland block.  We now see signs the NAO is transitioning or going “up” a bit. It is during these times of transition that weather can become eventful. The potential exist from another phasing of the northern and southern streams sometime mid next week. There will be a large upper level low pressure system over central Canada and a potent energetic disturbance coming out of Kansas to the southeast U.S. states. There will likely be a redevelopment of Low pressure off the  East Coast near the Carolina’s. At the same time a HUGE dip in the jet stream will be occurring along with the persistent blocking pattern well off to our northeast.  The Precipitation will wait for the Jet to go negative and then make its way up or just off the East coast, perhaps head northwest  before once again (Sandy) get pulled back by the negative jet and pushed in towards the E coast by The Greenland Block.  Timing looks to be late Wednesday perhaps through Thursday as another wave may ride up the negative trough.. Like sandy, there is no escape, though this will be NO Sandy , we got that stright?....Good ! . Not even close.
Still a bit too early for the specs, but the players are in place. Graphic 1: Below is a 2 panel model image of the 500MB chart and the 6 hour precip chart , timeframe Wednesday Pm
(Click Image to enlarge) On the left is the 500mb pattern, you can see the negative tilt to the jet representing initial precip may head out to sea.., though addition moisture to ride up from the southeast states could not escape. On the right: there you have a storm with quite heavy precipitation now. Low pressure situated JUST SSW of Southern New England. The low most likely would form off The Viginia coast then travel to the North...the block or "push' back to the coast is not as dramatic as it was with the Sandy set up, though is there and will be a major player.

Graphic 2 : Shows the 850MB winds which are the winds aloft and the potential for Gusts if brought down to the Surface. This model is indicating at least 75mph winds aloft at 850. But how do we get it to the surface?... From heavy precip and or convection which we know the model is showing here as well. Based on that , the potential exists for damaging winds with this storm, and in fact will be LIKELY if it forms . And Now the big question ....Will it be cold enough for snow? At this point the answer is no. 1: the track takes it west of Benchmark and continues N rather than ENE which would "pull" in the colder air behind it. With track further west, this would allow a more WSW -S flow bringing in higher dewpoint readings well above 32° to most of SNE, though slight shifts in track would mean a different story this go around. Stay tuned for the latest and Thank you for reading   ~Anthony

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