Sunday, October 28, 2012
The first effects of Hurricane Sandy are arriving this eve..and conditions will continue to deteriorate and maxing in intensity late Monday through all of Tuesday..Expect hurricane conditions..some of my previous post on this blog aslo explain what to expect.. be safe and take this storm very seriously..Thanks ~Anthony
Friday, October 26, 2012
Hurricane Sandy (now cat 1) looks to be losing warm core..maybe Post/extra-tropical..either way drop in pressure likely near its landfall.It appears she will be a long duration storm...with persistent TS force winds battering many areas for hours & hours & major inland flooding.Coastal areas will see beach erosion, very high waters coinciding with full moon. some storm surge is possible especial E &SE shores.Waves around or to the E of the circulation could be on the order of 25-40ft. There should be no downplaying th effects Sandy could have from Va-Maine from Sat-as late as Weds!If thats not enough on the back side of Sandy,a polar surge will lead to perhaps Blizzard condition's centered around West Virginia.yes SNOW.Folks in the path of Sandy, which very well could end up to be a Mega-Nor'easter should prepare for poweroutages and property damage.While Sandy most likely will not be"Tropical" this should NOT lead to any type of downplay,sure its a bit more benign if it ends up the case.Specifics on rainfall amounts,locations and sustained w/ and gust potentials will become clear as this storm evolves further N in Latitude.Just to throw a few #'s around, the potential for up to 15" of rain perhaps isolated higher amounts esp. near & to W & N of center.lesser E. Winds:WIDESPREAD Tropical Storm force winds appear likely for a LARGE area..strongest on EAST side of storm Sust. 35-45 Gusts to 80mph poss.Stay tuned for the latest, try to NOT to zero in on specifics at now.Still much time for shifts..#Sne track remains
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
At 11pm Hurricane Sandy is a strong Category 1 hurricane with an exceptionally low central barometric pressure reading of 954mb as seems to still be deepening.Folks along E coast of #FL - Outer Banks and Mid Atlantic up into Southern New En
gland right through the Atl. into Maine need to be on guard..GA-VA should be spared for MOST part.There remains No imminent threat, though confidence of effects continue to increase with time. Storm is Massive in SIZE,effects could be felt inland especially if its hugs E coast.. More in SNE & Maine if a SE-NW lashing.Thurs. is crucial! short range Models play a vital role in potential validity.Time frame of potential concern appears Sunday-Weds from S-N or SE -NW.. ( odd to say that ) specifics to be ironed out next day or 2. Intensity/effects remains in ? due to position,Press.Falls/rises expected & if it loses Trop. characteristics.Will come clear again w/time. It will be difficult for Sandy to escape,just may though,&we will be spared. Wise to @ least have it in your mind nxt couple days,it'll help. More Tomorrow guys..Have a good one ! ~Anthony Apologize for the horrible appearance of this having some fronts,color issues ect.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
I have made much talk the past few days over the potential for a big storm at the end of the month. Even speculation a few weeks back at this potential. As of today the potential is there and increasing with miss potential just as high. Though extremely important to note there is NO imminent threat and still a very good chance this storm slips to the S& E of Southern New England. So, what is this Storm we are talking about?. Right Now it is Tropical Storm Sandy strengthening that formed on Monday and is currently moving NNE at 20mph and has a Central Barometric Pressure reading of 993Millibars. She is forecasted to continue to strengthen and become a hurricane as early as Wednesday afternoon and continue to travel to the NNE.
Hurricane Watches and even Warnings are already up for Jamaica , Cuba and Guantanamo. Sandy is expected to ride up E of Florida and continue on a northerly path for at least a time, then some players come in. Does a front coming in from the Great Lakes hold its ground, speed up, Intensify and kick Sandy completely out to sea well south and east and completely spare us and make many of us look like hypsters trying to instill public panic, when in reality the potential had/has and continues to be very real, or does that front/trough slow or even stall near The Eastern Great Lakes and allow for Sandy to continue to the North, at which point that same trough would become negative tilted and allow Sandy to retrograde back towards the East Coast dangerously close to Southern New England near Halloween? Well that’s what one of our trusted model has been quite consistently leaning towards and an intensity projected capable to match or even exceed that of The Great 1938 Hurricane. Add to that a strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation , this will aid in storm development, intensity . There is about 2-3 days at MOST to nail this down, we should know by Thurs pm if this is a miss or that we seriously need to heed the warning our only weather tools are sending us and prepare for something that we knew would come soon or later . Southern New England is certainly NO stranger to considerable effects of Hurricanes. Edna & Carol two weeks apart in 1954, Gloria in 1985, Bob in 1991 and also the Perfect Storm later that year and many less significant so to speak in between. The are a couple things we do have in our favor to limit intensification though. As always the case further north in latitude is cooler sea surface temperatures and the general fact that cyclones tend to accelerate as they traverse northward . Certainly there is no imminent threat right now, but time is running out while guidance is giving us fair warning of potential. Make the best out of it, prepare regardless, understand that the potential is there for major to extreme damage near Halloween and just as fair game that this thing spares us. Sandy may not even be tropical, she is likely to transition into an extra-tropical storm with lacking warmer features of tropical origin. That would NOT take away from potential impacts as some models are indicating a VERY low central barometric pressure associated with it if it comes north and that will take hours and hours to uncoil . The storm is expected to be monstrous in size with an extraordinarily large wind field. To sum it up, be prepared that all this could be another highly talked about storm that spares us (not many would complain) or that finally after years of being “overdue” that the big one could hit. Thanks for reading guys ! ~Anthony
Below for weather fanatics is a graphic showing a few of recent model runs and what forecasters are facing among many other factors, teleconnections, Upper level lows placements…ect ect….but hey, its what we live for !
Sunday, October 21, 2012
In an interesting development over the past few days, models have quietly geared towards what could be a tropical system that comes dangerously close to affecting portions of the east coast with interest from Florida to Southern New England. It would be a storm caught up in between changing upper level pattern and teleconnections that favor a storm that would hug the east coast and perhaps perform a ballerina act some where near the Mid-Atlantic to SNE due to strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation and strong blocking near Greenland . This is something we definitely need to keep an eye on all this upcoming week. Of course we know that the hurricane season does not end until November 30th. Important to keep in mind that the majority of storms this late in the season tend to take a big hit by strong westerlies and get stunted out to sea and not even come close to a threat. Westerly influence would have NOTHING on what the pattern and teleconnections along with the coincidental formation of a negative tilted trough that could take a storm that would seem a bit to far east for effects to retrograde to the west dangerously close . It seems to be becoming increasingly possible that at least some coastal effects will be felt from a time frame from as early as Oct 27th to as late as Nov 2nd and perhaps something much greater. There is no current imminent threat though certainly no laughing matter at this point. Below is just one model loop I created from the GFS model and Surface Sea Level pressure. Stay tuned all week for the very latest on this potential hazard
Saturday, October 20, 2012
As many have heard, my old website has vanished . The domain was bought and so it is gone :( . This was due to a missed email of renewal notification. I want to thank you all very much for all the visits and hope that it was a useful resource and a stop you came to occasionally. That is in the past now and I have bigger an better plans ahead. I got a nice start here the past 2 days and will continue construction on Sunday and during my free time next week after work. I certainly would like some suggestions on the new site, so please feel free to let me know anything you would like to see on the new Southern New England Weather site via twitter or you can drop me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org. I have big plans for the new site with new fresh content and also lots of stuff carried over from the old site. This is not the final site address in a few days I will purchase my new domain and then release the link. I ask that you help me spread the word on the transition so it becomes easy to find and nobody is left behind. Its very important to me to continue sharing my passion for weather with all of you, but I also want to have products and info that YOU would like to see on my site., so again please drop me some suggestions. Thanks for your patience through the construction period and hopefully soon the New & improved SNEweather is up and running. I hope you all have a great weekend and would like to thank many of you for your kind words on the family and pet issues that I have been experiencing as of late. It really means a great deal to me. ~Anthony