Here we go again Southern New England ! Yes there is a brief and much needed warm-up approaching us Thursday through Sunday but before then we must grind through another period of accumulating snow for much of the region on Tuesday and likely a bit more later on Wednesday. It has been relentless this season.
WARNINGS & ADVISORIES: In advance of the storm system all of Connecticut (except the extreme SE part of the state) , central and northern Rhode Island and much of Massachusetts (away from areas S&E of RT 24) are under a Winter Weather Advisory for much of Tuesday. Winter Storm Warnings are up for parts of Worcester County north and east into Southern New Hampshire away from the Seacoast.
THE SETUP: The System we are watching has brought some heavy snowfall rates to the Chicago area today and reports of thundersnow. This is all associated with a energetic northern stream pool of upper level energy. This energy will be over the eastern Great Lakes by early Tuesday and will form a new low just off the Southern New England coastlines into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday evening and bring us our snowfall. Enough mild air will flow in to make for a mix with rain over southeast portions and likely be mostly rain over Cape Cod and the Islands, so not much if any snowfall is expected
TIMING: Snow appears to break out over southwest Connecticut between 7-10am and progress off to the northeast thereafter reaching far northeastern Massachusetts between 11am-2pm give or take. With impressive indications of vertical upward velocity at 700 mb (10,000 ft above) there is the potential for brief snowfall rates to reach or exceed 1" per hour with even the possibility of thunder. This will have impacts on the afternoon and evening commute east of Worcester, Ma up and down Southern New England. Below I have put together a animated simulated radar loop giving a general idea of how precipitation should develop and progress through the day on Tuesday.
SNOWFALL: Away from the immediate shores and parts of southeast CT, RI & Ma we are looking at a general 2-5" snowfall with this. There will be a couple areas that have a chance to exceed 5" of snowfall though and this will be northern Worcester county into northeast Mass into SE New Hampshire. The reason for less snowfall near the coast this go around is mainly due to low pressure tucked close to our coastlines Tuesday and the projections of a south/southeast onshore wind direction during heaviest period of precipitation.
OTHER IMPACTS: This is not a typical 'snowstorm' or coastal storm so I am not expected too many other impacts of significance though we could see some sustained SE winds between 20-30 mph developing over coastal Massachusetts and especially Cape Cod and the Islands as these locations will be nearest to developing and likely intensifying low pressure off the coast. Much of Southern New England will see some gusts at times 25-35 mph with perhaps a few near/over 40mph on the Cape & the Islands Tuesday afternoon and evening.
WHATS AHEAD ?: Milder weather ! Before we get there though we have a transition day shaping up for wednesday with another potential event with weak low pressure trying to form off of the New Jersey coast Wednesday afternoon which looks to bring a mix of wet snow and rain to portions of the area. It currently favors central and east the most. I will surely have more details on that potential after Tuesday's event passes and I can get a quick glance at exactly how the upper level pattern appears at that point. Beyond Wednesday a south/southwest flow develops along with warming at the mid levels which will bring surface temperatures into the upper 30's to low 40's for much of the area Thursday with a few rain showers possibly brief icing transitioning to rain at night into much of Friday with a storm well off to our northwest and trailing cold front passage slated. Highs on Friday look to soar into the 40's and 50's to near 60 for some ! It looks a bit cooler but mild again Saturday and early Sunday with colder air arriving late with a few rain or snow showers possible. All indications continue to bring us into a much colder and potentially stormy pattern once again thereafter. Thank you for reading. ~Anthony