Wednesday, March 18, 2015

On & On We Go..A Classic Long New England Winter

Well, after a few days featuring a "Spring feel" around Southern New England (which I must admit, it did feel good !) we are back into a Winter type pattern, one that continues to feature below normal temperatures and the potential of snow/winter events. Many of us are living through a good ol fashion long New England winter that we heard of as kids and breaking many records along the way for many. One that will soon not be forgotten and one that seems to just not want to die. The bitter cold winds of today are reminding us of this harsh reality and still with a ton of cold, arctic air over Canada and an active northern branch of the jet stream, there is no clear signal of Spring- type weather arriving just yet. Every time we start to make progress, we go back the other way as a western US ridge pumps the heat to our west resulting in eastern troughiness and mostly normal to colder than avg temps around here. I do not see a clear end to it just yet.
Our next system comes in Friday and should persist into Saturday morning. Important to note right off the bat that this will not be a significant storm with significant impacts. It simply does not have the power to produce big numbers or any significant coastal effects to the region and is moving fairly quickly.
Light snow or even a light mix should break out across the region from southwest to northeast Friday late morning into the early afternoon hours. As precipitation becomes more steady later in the afternoon and early evening hours , most will be seeing snow falling. It could be a tricky afternoon commute. Snow will persist for most the evening hours into very early Saturday morning for most. Heaviest bands should be confined to the south of the Massachusetts Turnpike where the most moist air will be at low and mid levels and closer to the weak storm center. Due to a weak storm center and no upper level support, I do think we will be at least tracking a mix line close to the south coast of SNE later Fri eve and early Sat. Some mixing should make it in for a time at least up to the Cape Cod Canal, though this could depend highly on the intensity of the precip, so will have to watch that progression closely at that time. Either way, snow ratio's do not appear very high. It is a case of where there is the most moisture, there will be lower ratio's, so a trade off of sorts in that regards. Mix and or snow should wrap up by noon Saturday but we will have to keep an eye on the chance of additional snow showers/squalls with a fresh injection of cold air and northwest winds on the storms backside. Very cold Sunday with the likely potential of even a few more snow showers/squalls. No real warm up in sight that I see with even more winter type events potentially looming ahead.
Below is my best shot at snow totals Friday into Saturday. I will continue to evaluate model trends, satellite and even some analogs and see where we stand tomorrow. If anything I think some higher amounts could shift to the southwest. Thank you for reading !    ~Anthony S.