Tuesday, January 29, 2013

*New Blog* Wild Weather Swings Ahead, Rain & Snow !

We certainly have some changing weather over the next seven days or so and it starts with temperatures and in those often fluctuations precipitation is forecast along the way. I will try to sort it all out as best I can in this blog. 
We remain near a boundary this evening separating warmer air to our south and west and colder air to our north, that once again is breaking out light precipitation this eve. Temperatures at the surface are JUST cold enough in some locations to support a bit of Freezing fog, mist or rain.  Others will see just a few cold rain showers and fog. Be aware and cautious of that If you are steeping out this evening as surfaces may be slick.  Towards the morning that boundary (Warm front ) will have lifter north of our region and with a strong Upper level Low deepening well off to our northwest near Quebec Canada, with a strong sharp cold front on its tail . This will send in a strong south/southwest flow ahead of it and temperatures rising into the 40’s towards dawn and rising there beyond until we max near or even over 60° perhaps ! Winds will gradually but surely increase during the day Wednesday peaking late evening with sustained winds 20-35mph and potential gusts 40-50mph inland with some approaching 60mph near the  east, south and southeast shores. For this potential the Nation Weather Service in  Boston has issued a practical region-wide *High Wind Watch* in effect late Wednesday eve and into early Thursday morning. Showers and downpours with a possible rumble of thunder comes through the area Wednesday evening from west to east. 
The potential exists for a half inch of rain to over 1" region wide . Its this convection that will aid in bringing gusts about 5,000 feet near 90 mph down to the surface in modified form. Wind Gusts of this magnitude are certainly capably and likely for scattered tree and wire damage. It would be a great idea to spend a few minutes in the milder, dry air early Wednesday to secure any loose objects that may become fly projectiles and hazardous to others. The showers and downpours end from west to east near dawn Thursday. It will remain breezy especially early Thursday and mild , again early on Thursday before colder air comes in behind the cold front passage from the west and northwest. There is a slight shot of a snow shower Thursday for western Massachusetts . All of our region will see much colder air infiltrate Thursday night and especially during Friday where highs will remain in the 30’s for many. This may set the stage for some addition moisture to ride up the newly settled trough over the northeast and bring a period of snow showers or light snow to our area late Friday afternoon, especially south and over hillier terrains . This again looks moisture starved and not much if anything is expected with this system. Though something to monitor throughout the day Wednesday. Seasonable to even perhaps slightly above seasonable weather returns for Saturday with highs in 30’s to perhaps low 40’s for some. The next system to watch will be  clipper moisture with an Upper Level Low Pressure system coming across the northwestern Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley late Saturday and early Sunday morning. There are indications and have been that at the last minute a new Low forms somewhere near or off the coast of Southern New England early on Sunday creating a potential weak inverted trough once again. Or “Norlun”. This would potentially enhance precipitation along east coastal areas from again anywhere from Cape Cod to Portland Maine.

 It remains simply to early to make a call on amounts or if this even develops, though the potential IS there, I can tell you that. Of course we saw this just a short time ago and we all know the cold arctic air won that battle suppressing most if not all moisture out to sea. This air does not look quite as arctic as the last, so maybe the setup becomes a bit more favorable this time around to bring some accumulating snowfall in here Sunday afternoon and evening. Another potential clipper swings from Alberta and the upper Great lakes  late Monday into Tuesday with potential eyes on Southern New England  ~Anthony

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