Friday, January 16, 2015

*New Weather Blog* Updated 5pm 1/16/15

An arctic front is crossing the region this evening. It brought with it some snow squalls and gusty winds. Now we will watch the temperatures drop rapidly this evening as a large, but brief dome of high pressure begins to settle in over Southern New England bringing much colder air and very low windchill's. High pressure moves off the coast allowing for our next system to approach for Sunday into very early on Monday. More arctic air engulfs the area next week with a couple chances of snowfall as the northern branch of the jet stream remains active with some sub tropical jet stream interactions.  

A rather robust Alberta clipper is forming near the US/Canada border near Montana and the Dakota's, meanwhile high pressure situated over the Gulf States is sliding away allowing for an increase in moisture along the sub tropical jet stream. These 2 pieces meet up right over Southern New England on Sunday. The track of low pressure looks to be just a bit too far to the west along with a negative tilt to the jet stream to allow for a flow off the relatively mild ocean waters to the south of Southern New England into the region spelling out a mostly rain event for the area.  
                                                                    CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW

Further Storm Details : Light, scattered rain looks to break out across the region from south/southwest to north/northeast during the mid to late morning hours on Sunday and becoming heavier during the afternoon into the early evening with a few downpours and very gusty winds. It is a thin line of precipitation and is likely offshore near/after midnight Monday. There will be a very tight rain/snow line out back in western SNE, where some snow is possible. I am not sure much accumulates due to a rush of colder and more importantly, drier air is ushered in on the west side of the storm system. High temperatures will vary on Sunday but look to be in the upper 30's to the northwest (falling through the day) to to near 50° on Cape Cod & the Islands. Winds will be an issue for a time as well gusting between 30-35 mph in Foxboro for the game to as high as a few gusts near 50 mph over southeast areas into early Monday.
Areas most likely to see some snow out of this system appears to be west of the Connecticut River Valley. Just some back end flakes though as it looks. Perhaps some accumulation over southern Vermont and NW Massachusetts 

Into Next week: A drying, cold west/northwest wind comes into the area on Monday and most of Tuesday before we start to see some more action approach.
The northern branch of the Jet stream will remain active as a clipper approaches mid week, that could become enhanced near the shores with some interaction with the moist sub tropical jet. This has the potential to drop some accumulation snow across the region. 
Overall it still is a rather progressive pattern. It is the reason we can see such cold temperatures followed quickly by a storm that brings rain. It is not the first time this year! Too much movement and motion of high pressure and low pressure centers will do it every time. There are and have been indications of developing high latitude blocking near Greenland from time to time in the weeks ahead and more of an influence from that sub tropical jet. The blocking signals never really hold strong though (yet). It then becomes a situation and pattern of timing all these pieces together in order to get a decent snowstorm in here. Unless all the pieces gel, we are left with weaker "systems" like we have seen throughout the entire season to this point. I believe conditions ahead favor an increase chance at this occurring form here out out right through February. Whether it will please all the die hard snow lovers, I am not sure but the potential is there for some white stuff. Not much more to ask for at this point. 
I wish I could go further into details about the pattern and specifics with it ahead but can not do so at this time. I can say with a great deal of confidence that winter is not over. 
Thank you for taking the time to read. Go Pats !  ~Anthony

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