After many topping off near or in the mid 50’s just yesterday afternoon, we now have readings in the 20’s and low 30’s and falling with extremely cold temperatures aloft as well ensuring precipitation coming in with our expected storm will be all snow.
We are watching 2 low pressure systems take shape this hour.
One is located off to the west of lake Ontario as almost like a clipper type system and one developing with increase pressure falls off the New Jersey coast. Its that low pressure that will intensify and pass southeast of the 40/70 bench mark early Tuesday. Though, a thin Inverted “Norlun” trough is expected to connect the two and bring potential for intense snowfall rates to east coast Massachusetts and southeast New Hampshire.
Scattered snow flurries have already reported across western Ma, though accumulating snowfall will start to approach the south coast of Southern New England around 4-6pm, a quick burst expected for many even inland areas . After that burst , heavy snow will start to focus closer into the center of low pressure and snow, heavy at times 1-2 perhaps 3” an hour may develop along extreme east coastal Massachusetts, limiting visibility below 1/4mile overnight.
That axis of heavy snow fall will then begin to pivot into northeast Massachusetts and southeast New Hampshire towards very early Tuesday am and most likely could have BIG morning rush hour implications once again. The forecasting aspect of storm has been pretty smooth with consistent signals from both our operational and ensemble guidance that may not reflect on the SNEweather snow map ,though higher resolution models which tend to have better handle on these potential Mesoscale situations have been quite consistent with more precipitation into our area and that is how the snowfall expectation map was composed late Saturday with slight adjustment Sunday afternoon. Tricky forecast? It sure is ! But so aren't they all? There is an incredible amount dynamics to develop as low intensifies and nears the southeast SNE coast. Keeping in mind the whole time it could have been worse as still most intense moisture stays out to sea. But, when the arctic air meets the mild Atlantic Ocean and goes boom basically that’s our storm. The bands of intense snowfall much like that of a thunderstorm are likely to develop with possible thunder snow somewhere in the bands. Again, likely east coastal Mass up to perhaps Portland Maine. Further shifts to the north and even to the south are possible even as the storm has commenced. For this reason, Hazardous Weather Outlooks are in place for interior SNE, Winter Weather Advisories closer to the coast and Winter Storm watches along the immediate shorelines.
We wont have to long to get up, brush off before we look ahead to our next potential near Friday which at its forecasting stage now looks to deliver Warning type snowfall (6+) potentially from Ohio to #SNE and carries potential for strong winds as well. A more detailed post on that tomorrow as well as hopefully a recap of the expected storm tonight and early Tuesday. That’s it for now, thanks for reading ~Anthony
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