Back ON The Roller Coaster, Wintry Weather In Transition

Cold Arctic air remains over Southern New England  this weekend, the likes of which have not been seen around here for 4 years for some !  An Upper level Low forms over the northern Great Lakes later on Sunday and is expected to pass well to the north of our area Monday evening. The recent cold will be in place and very stubborn to move, though at the same time warmer air aloft will be oozing in from southwest-northeast. During this transition, precipitation is expected to break out later Monday afternoon in the form of wintry precipitation for most. 

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We have seen this overrunning situation on a couple occasions already this winter and this looks very similar and holds to the pattern. Though I cant argue with some data I am seeing that with the timing coming together this could be mostly frozen precipitation and maybe even mostly snow !  Again there is not a great deal of moisture associated with this wave though some locations may squeak out a quarter of an inch to perhaps a few isolated higher amounts.  Once again, this looks very progressive and is long gone by Tuesday dawn. 

Many clouds will be around with perhaps some fog and mist throughout times on Tuesday with temperatures finally rebounding into or near 40° for many.  We catch a brief break as a warm front lifts north of Southern New England through Tuesday afternoon and especially early Wednesday when some locations may approach 50° before we watch a VERY strong cold front waiting back in the wings that will break out downpours and perhaps a rumble of thunder late Wednesday as strong southwest flow develops just ahead of the passage . Wednesday night there could be a fine line and switch to snow especially central and western locations. I see a low chance even of a possible flash freeze with this, which can be extremely dangerous especially for motorist caught out at the wrong place in the wrong time. Its something to keep an eye on along with a screaming low level jet and potential for damaging winds near the eastern shores. The Thursday and into Friday situation is something that most definitely bears a watchful eye, once the passage occurs, the front/boundary may slow to a crawl as they often do just off our coastlines. Any addition wave of moisture could move north/northeast along this front and bring  some snowfall, especially eastern and southeastern locations as some of our ensemble models have indicated. Back to colder air thereafter with a potential for a storm next weekend. Could we re-introduce a "Norlun" ??  More updates on Sunday. Thank You for reading and enjoy the rest of your weekend   ~Anthony