After January high temperatures 50-64° (30° above average for some) across southern New England on Monday, temperatures have since steadily fallen and leveled off Tuesday in the mid-upper 30’s and low 40’s which is only slightly above average for this time of year. Along a boundary of Arctic Air off to our west and northwest and mild air now just off to our southeast, a huge cloud and boundary has formed with a few waves of low pressure forming and riding up and along it. One wave went through yesterday evening with some light cold rain and sleet for some. A break in the action Tuesday day but now again we are watching moisture grow near Arkansas and Tennessee and will begin the track to the north along the same boundary and deliver a plowable snow for many folks starting after midnight through the daylight hours of Wednesday.
Initially temperatures aloft support snow for many, especially during times of moderate snow and banding. Those temperatures aloft will slowly rise heading through the early day hours on Wednesday. For this reason and the fact the south coast and southeast Massachusetts will see the rise 1st and quicker, mixing with and changing to plain rain for some. Again this is a tough call right along the interstate 95 corridor, much like all the other systems so far this winter. I expect this storm to be no different as the waters in the Atlantic Ocean off the southern New England coast are still running above normal. This is not a big event but the timing off it will carry potential commute issues in the morning and possible school delays and or a cancellation or two. That storm warps up during the afternoon hours from southwest-northeast.
A cold front comes through Thursday ushering in colder renewed air, though not arctic yet. Winds will be gusty Thursday though and there is the chance of a snow shower or two. We will have to watch yet another wave riding up the trough Thursday eve, though with the renewed blast of colder /drier air that one should miss to the southeast. It appears we warm back up a bit Saturday and the very first half of Sunday before huge changes are ushered in through Sunday afternoon and evening with the true Arctic Cold front prone to make passage. Could be a wild football game at Gillette. Kick off is 6:30pm. With mild temps for tailgating near 40° falling quickly on gusty north/northwest winds.
Beyond Sunday, forecast confidence surely decreases though signs have been pretty consistent with a very cold day Monday in the 20’s for many and a system/clipper moving towards and or just north of our area that may try to tap some Atlantic moisture before organizing off the coast. Will surely keep an eye on that. A brief bump in temps may occur after Tuesday with more Arctic Air incoming thereafter . Could be some wild swings ahead and in transition some storm systems to watch ! ~Anthony
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