Many Winter and or snow lovers are starting to get antsy and asking themselves is this year another bust like last season ? While others just sit around with no complaints. Talk and signs before winter began were showing nice blocking and an active storm pattern. The signs failed us forecasters for the most part, though December did end on a colder than normal note and we did see a couple snow events in the northeast. Through all of this, its noted that Ski-Country in the mountains of central and northern New England, there have been NO complaints from those diehards, it has been a very fantastic beneficial season up there that has come to a bit of a halt in recent days only. Now that January is here temperatures have slowly started to moderate and will continue to do so as we head into the weekend and beyond. But, as the old saying goes “what goes up, must come down” eventually. You would think with some of the hype out there that we are headed for a deep Freeze, that just does not look like the case from what I am seeing. Sure cold air is cold regardless of how you cut it, but it is what is expected for Mid-January and especially in New England !
I cant even be sure that once the flip is made which looks to be around the 16th, give or take that we will even dip below normal average highs which for this time of year are around 35° for a region wide southern New England average. It certainly is not an extreme switch we will be experiencing.
In the near term, a weak cold front is slipping though our region this evening with very little fanfare. It will be breezy to gusty at times Thursday as we will be on the boundary between cold and milder air to our southwest. Most Thursday will start off sunny for many with an increase in high clouds arriving during the late afternoon hours with building moisture off to our west near The Ohio River Valley, which is our next shot at precipitation. Highs Thursday will again top off in the low to mid 40’s. Thursday Night , with high pressure overhead, winds will turn light , so a good setup for radiational cooling and many if not all of the area returns to low 30’s upper 20’s and perhaps a few high elevation teens. Friday we may drop back a couple degrees as we await some possible showers late evening and overnight. No big deal there. Saturday we should be in a dry slot and we should see another rebound in temperatures into the mid-perhaps upper 40’s , which would be approximately 10° above average. Again, nothing dramatic. Late Saturday behind the warm up, a deep trough to our west will be digging east as MUCH colder air across the mid section of the country also tracks east. A Few more showers com in overnight Saturday. By the way, Sunday at Gillette for The Past Playoff game vs. The Texans looks mild and near 50°!
Its at this time things become split a bit. Yes colder air heads towards the northeast U.S. , especially colder than what we have seen to start January, but nothing compared to certain January periods of past, and you do not have to go back far for evidence. The sign of hope comes at 500Millibars. Recently dominated by building east ridge and a western trough, it will flip. It starts with The Polar Vortex descending south/southeast which in turn builds a western ridge and eastern trough. It is during these times storms love to develop and breed and that can be seen on the 500mb pattern around the 17th coming out of the deep south near Texas. The big question remains does the cold air come in first and just deliver a period of seasonable to slightly below seasonal temperatures and dry weather beyond the 17th?, or does the timing of southern, southeastern moisture coincide with the arrival of colder air via Polar Vortex to form a storm system near the east coast ? Yet to be known, but the chance is there and for that as it bears watching for those who have been waiting patiently for it.
Next question is does the colder air hang around by the time another system decides to swing up the coast or does it bring mild air in just ahead of it as has been case most the year and much like last season. We could get into a pattern that sends a few Alberta Clippers with light snow events also. Teleconnections do favor the potential system near or around the 17th but again become split thereafter. It seems very hard to sustain either mild or cold air for any period of time this season so far. What needs to happen is the NAO needs to get to & remain in a negative phase and blocking needs to set up and hold over or just south/southeast of Greenland. Until that happens it is the same old same old pattern in place. Knowing it only takes one blockbuster storm to make a season memorable, there appears to be NO solid signs this is any type of special season. Although it still is very early, historically there have not been many, if any turnarounds of a magnitude that would make this season any different. I always feel if you have to dig deeper than normal to find what your looking for (cold air, snow) then its simply not meant to be. That lesson was learnt last season. I for one want nothing more to see this turnaround and bring cold and snow to stay for the rest of the winter, I just don’t see it and will not dig deep to find or convince otherwise at this point. The beginning of the season was admittedly a personal forecast bust with constant talk of potential blocking which simply never occurred. I am not about to cover that mistake up by trying to “find” a correction. Lets just hope and watch the trends ahead and remember that February can bring the most intense winter storms to the northeast and March can roar in like a lion ! ~Anthony
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