Sunday, February 7, 2016

Winter Storm February 8, 2016


High pressure in control over the area today will make for fair weather conditions with increasing cloudiness and mild temperatures in the low 40's across most of the region ahead of the approaching large ocean storm that will bring fringe effects to a large portion of the area especially near the eastern shores. 
Click on images for a larger view
A rich, large and powerful ocean storm is exploding off the coast of the Carolina's today. The placement of the current storm and the environment in which it is in will allow for explosive cyclogenesis this eve and a deepening surface low passing east of the Outer Banks, feeding off the mild sea surface temperature's of the Gulf Stream, traveling northeast until it eventually will pass about 100 miles SE of the 40/70 "Benchmark" at some point tomorrow morning. A pass this far south and east would typically mean a rather minor to non- event for our region, though due to the very large size and intensity of this developing storm, it will brush the region with its western flank bringing accumulating snow, especially to the east & southeast if SNE, gusty winds, large ocean swells and potential for moderate coastal flooding.
The main reason eastern area's see the brunt is the simple fact that it is the area closest to the center of this major ocean ocean storm. In addition to that, the anti-cyclonic flow and an east/northeast  wind around the storm puts parts of eastern Massachusetts at high risk for some ocean enhancement and that will be the reason for the likely the highest snow totals. This includes parts of Plymouth and Bristol counties, perhaps western Barnstable County.. The intensity of the winds off the ocean in that ENE direction and the abnormally mild ocean waters means sufficient enough low level moisture (typically tough for many models to pick up on)  and a push quite a ways inland of the ocean enhanced snow. Further west  across the region will be a very dry, fluffy snow accumulation of a few inches for most as of now as interaction with another low pressure system off to the west of the region and a energetic upper level vortex center swings in from the west . The problem lies in just how much moisture can be squeezed out for central and western SNE under a colder and drier airmass. We will have to watch radar trends today and overnight for this to become more clear.  

 For now a WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for most of eastern SNE as well as coastal hazards . The Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Monday morning right through Tuesday morning. A watch means that conditions are favorable for accumulating snow of  6" or more. As soon as the NWS assumes this is likely, it will go to  warning at some point. I do have a good feeling that Winter Weather advisories will also be posted at some point  today for locations further inland . This is just one aspect of the forecast. Winds and large ocean swells with hit the eastern ocean shores through the day on Monday. Model images below show these  additional threats with this incoming system. The Combination of snow falling heavy at times to the east and potential sustained winds near tropical storm force with gusts near 50-65mph likely at the shores brings the likelihood of near Blizzard conditions to parts of the region which will be outlined on the snow map that follows in this post. Gusty winds will extend further inland and create some blowing snow and low visibilities at times. Large waves and swells will bring some coastal flooding at high tide. This is especially the case from Cape Ann to Winthrop into the South Shore of Massachusetts and the Outer Cape and Nantucket .  

Below I have put together this simulated Winterized radar loop to give a general idea of what is to unfold on Monday 
Snow should arrive from the south during the pre-dawn hours of Monday and overspread most of the affected area by 9am. The brunt of the storm appears to be during the late morning and afternoon hours, and again, focused across eastern sections. While the main storm gets kicked well away from the region Monday evening, snow, scattered at times and of varying intensity will continue for the region right into Tuesday and possibly right into Wednesday as well  as a potent upper level vortex and weak low pressure systems swings in from the Great Lakes. There is the likelihood of some inverted trough induced snow as well, just very hard to pinpoint location and time at the moment. Addition accumulations are quite likely at times. Very cold air takes over the region, aided by a fresh snowpack for many into next weekend. It looks quite brutal too ! Deep Winter has arrived to Southern New England. !

( Additional snowfall is likely at times Tues-Weds)


Thursday, June 4, 2015

SNE & Beyond Forecast Blog for June 4, 2015

Where to start....Well, lets recap May. Two significant headlines for the month for most of Southern New England. 1: Up until the final couple days many locations in the area were experiencing the driest May on record. Late rains squashed the reality of that occurring. 2: It was a very warm May ! In fact, the warmest on record for Hartford (Bradley Int. Airport) and 10th warmest for Boston (Logan Airport). Pretty impressive considering that February was the coldest on record for both cities. Now most SNE locations have gotten off to a very chilly start to June, especially coastal locations. In fact ,Boston is off to its coolest start 4 days in to June on record ! The pendulum keeps swinging this year. 
(click on all images for a larger view)
Short Term Forecast: Increasing clouds are moving into the region this eve and will continue to do so, especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike ahead of a developing storm system off the Carolina's that is slowly moving to the ENE. This system wont bring significant impacts to the region but Friday is certainly not as nice as today was with mostly cloudy skies developing for most. It looks mainly overcast the closer you move to the eastern and southeastern shores. Showers will move into southeast locations during the late afternoon and especially the evening hours and overnight into very early Saturday. 
Best chance of this but not limited to, is Cape Cod & the Islands where elevated precipitable water values may lead to some heavier showers and downpours. Some locations could see 1/2"-1" of rain from this. It is a close call and close shave though. There also is an outside chance at a rumble of thunder. Winds will be light and variable throughout the day. High temps will be near either side of 70° for most inland locations, will cooler reading near the coast in the upper 50's and 60's.
Saturday will feature some morning and early afternoon clouds, and even a few showers for SE Mass. but developing sunshine thereafter towards the late afternoon and early evening . You will notice humidity creeping up as well as early as Saturday morning. High temperatures will be warmer on Saturday , especially inland where many locations will near 80°. Areas near The CT River and Pioneer Valley could get into the low 80's.  We shall see. This depends highly on the amount of sunshine that develops. The shorelines will be much cooler with a NNE wind developing. One other thing to watch for is some developing gusty NNE winds for SE Mass & Cape Cod & the Islands. Gusts are likely to range between 25-35mph. 
Mid-Long Term Outlook: Sunday is looking dry with just some fair weather clouds developing during the afternoon hours. Winds light and variable. High's will top off in the 70's for most, but again, cooler at the shores. Increasing clouds Monday with the threat of showers and storms moving in to the region late evening ahead of a frontal boundary. The front looks to slow a bit approaching the shores so the showers/downpours and maybe some thunder should linger for central and especially eastern parts of the region into Tuesday morning. 
It appears as though starting Wednesday of next week , temperatures will warm quite a bit to the point that some locations may approach 90° by next Friday. That is a long way out there , so for now will just keep an eye on it. As of now the best shot for Thunder next week as we turn up the heat and humidity after hump day appears to be Thursday. 
Tropics: The 2015 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season started on Monday. We have already seen the formation of tropical Storm Ana. There were weak signs that Bill could be close to forming near the upcoming weekend,, but chances of that occurrence seem much lower than a few days ago. Though there still appears to be a slight chance at development into next wk as a closed low develops off the eastern seaboard and a broad surface low center. Ocean waters are quite warm to the south of Southern New England this late Spring so I will still keep an eye on this system. 
Meanwhile over in the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Blanca which was a category 4 storm just yesterday has run into an environment with increased shear and has cause here to weaken to a Cat 2 today. This is great news considering she has an eye on the Baja Peninsula. 
Below is a nice loop of the latest Infrared satellite of Hurricane Blanca. She is the first cat 2 storm to be near her current location since Hurricane Bud in 2012.

Thank you for reading !       ~Anthony S. 

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

On & On We Go..A Classic Long New England Winter

Well, after a few days featuring a "Spring feel" around Southern New England (which I must admit, it did feel good !) we are back into a Winter type pattern, one that continues to feature below normal temperatures and the potential of snow/winter events. Many of us are living through a good ol fashion long New England winter that we heard of as kids and breaking many records along the way for many. One that will soon not be forgotten and one that seems to just not want to die. The bitter cold winds of today are reminding us of this harsh reality and still with a ton of cold, arctic air over Canada and an active northern branch of the jet stream, there is no clear signal of Spring- type weather arriving just yet. Every time we start to make progress, we go back the other way as a western US ridge pumps the heat to our west resulting in eastern troughiness and mostly normal to colder than avg temps around here. I do not see a clear end to it just yet.
Our next system comes in Friday and should persist into Saturday morning. Important to note right off the bat that this will not be a significant storm with significant impacts. It simply does not have the power to produce big numbers or any significant coastal effects to the region and is moving fairly quickly.
Light snow or even a light mix should break out across the region from southwest to northeast Friday late morning into the early afternoon hours. As precipitation becomes more steady later in the afternoon and early evening hours , most will be seeing snow falling. It could be a tricky afternoon commute. Snow will persist for most the evening hours into very early Saturday morning for most. Heaviest bands should be confined to the south of the Massachusetts Turnpike where the most moist air will be at low and mid levels and closer to the weak storm center. Due to a weak storm center and no upper level support, I do think we will be at least tracking a mix line close to the south coast of SNE later Fri eve and early Sat. Some mixing should make it in for a time at least up to the Cape Cod Canal, though this could depend highly on the intensity of the precip, so will have to watch that progression closely at that time. Either way, snow ratio's do not appear very high. It is a case of where there is the most moisture, there will be lower ratio's, so a trade off of sorts in that regards. Mix and or snow should wrap up by noon Saturday but we will have to keep an eye on the chance of additional snow showers/squalls with a fresh injection of cold air and northwest winds on the storms backside. Very cold Sunday with the likely potential of even a few more snow showers/squalls. No real warm up in sight that I see with even more winter type events potentially looming ahead.
Below is my best shot at snow totals Friday into Saturday. I will continue to evaluate model trends, satellite and even some analogs and see where we stand tomorrow. If anything I think some higher amounts could shift to the southwest. Thank you for reading !    ~Anthony S.

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Another Weekend Winter System

Sure felt nice out there on this last day of February 2015 didn't it? What an incredible recording breaking extreme month it was though. The numbers are staggering. One of the coldest on record for many and the snowiest month ever for many as well. I will have a comprehensive round up of the historical month in a few days , but for now there is some more wintry weather to talk about. It will be the 6th weekend in a row with a winter storm affecting the region !
The storm system we are watching is rather weak but has a decent precip field associated with it due to a nice interaction with the sub tropical jet and some Gulf and Atlantic moisture being drawn into it. The system is now dropping snow across the nation's heartland and will follow the jet stream right into Southern New England, arriving late Sunday morning or early afternoon spreading a swath of accumulating snow into the area. The precip will have to overcome a layer of dry air at the onset, so snow should start off fairly light. Once we saturate the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere , it should fall at a good clip Sunday late afternoon and eve for most areas. We will have to watch a mix line coming close to the south coast, especially for Cape Cod and the Islands. Due to that and the likelihood of lower snow to liquid ratio's down there, I have held amounts back a bit there. I do not foresee any coastal concerns with wind or flooding, but the winds will certainly increase behind the storm system on Monday with a fresh injection of arctic air taking over the region. The snow/mix should wrap up from west to east Monday morning. Below is a map of the snowfall amounts I am expecting. Areas near and south of the pink dotted line at least run a risk of some mixing.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

More Cold & Snow Is In The Forecast Ahead

There is a big winter storm starting to affect portions of the southeast US this afternoon. It looks to bring heavy accumulations of snow and ice to Tennessee again, also into West Virginia, Virginia and even North Carolina. Lighter snows should clip southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey , southern New York State and Southern New England later this eve through Thursday eve. 

The Jet stream looks to take this just far enough south to spare Southern New England from another significant snowfall, though it does not appear we will escape from seeing at least a few flakes and some light fluffy accumulations once again from this next storm system. The center of the storm will pass well southeast of Nantucket tomorrow eve. The air will be quite dry especially for areas near and north of the Massachusetts Turnpike, so not expecting much if any accums there but further to the south the northern fringe of the ocean storm snow shield should bring light snow into the region. Like this mornings system, mid levels are quite dry, but closer to the surface there will be more moist air and just enough to squeeze out some fluffy flakes to areas near the South Coast. Important to note the system still could tick north a bit, so I am watching that potential closely still today (see graphic below).
Click on Images for a larger view
One other factor here will be developing NNE winds which will lead to some ocean effect or ocean enhancement for parts of eastern Massachusetts, esp the South Shore and Cape Cod.

 The air will be plenty cold enough at all levels to support snow. No issues with any mixing. Light snow could break out as early as 10am- noontime along the south coast of Connecticut and Rhode Island and more towards 1-2pm for areas of eastern MA, Cape Cod and the Islands. Most locations are done by dark , except for the Cape and the Islands where some ocean effect light snow could continue through the eve. 

High temperatures on Thursday throughout Southern New England will range from about 16° to the far NW to about  25-30° on Nantucket. Again, a fairly low impact event though the timing could cause some issues near the shores during Thursdays afternoon/eve commute with reduced visibility and slick spots on any untreated surfaces. 

The cold is not in any rush to go anywhere across New England as we approach March, but the jet stream will lift north this weekend into next week creating a boundary for more precipitation and storminess to form. We should be on the cold side of that again ! Below are my thoughts for accumulations tomorrow  Stay tuned and thank you for reading     ~Anthony  

2014-2015 Seasonal Snowfall Totals (updated 2/25)

Friday, January 16, 2015

*New Weather Blog* Updated 5pm 1/16/15

An arctic front is crossing the region this evening. It brought with it some snow squalls and gusty winds. Now we will watch the temperatures drop rapidly this evening as a large, but brief dome of high pressure begins to settle in over Southern New England bringing much colder air and very low windchill's. High pressure moves off the coast allowing for our next system to approach for Sunday into very early on Monday. More arctic air engulfs the area next week with a couple chances of snowfall as the northern branch of the jet stream remains active with some sub tropical jet stream interactions.  

A rather robust Alberta clipper is forming near the US/Canada border near Montana and the Dakota's, meanwhile high pressure situated over the Gulf States is sliding away allowing for an increase in moisture along the sub tropical jet stream. These 2 pieces meet up right over Southern New England on Sunday. The track of low pressure looks to be just a bit too far to the west along with a negative tilt to the jet stream to allow for a flow off the relatively mild ocean waters to the south of Southern New England into the region spelling out a mostly rain event for the area.  
                                                                    CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW

Further Storm Details : Light, scattered rain looks to break out across the region from south/southwest to north/northeast during the mid to late morning hours on Sunday and becoming heavier during the afternoon into the early evening with a few downpours and very gusty winds. It is a thin line of precipitation and is likely offshore near/after midnight Monday. There will be a very tight rain/snow line out back in western SNE, where some snow is possible. I am not sure much accumulates due to a rush of colder and more importantly, drier air is ushered in on the west side of the storm system. High temperatures will vary on Sunday but look to be in the upper 30's to the northwest (falling through the day) to to near 50° on Cape Cod & the Islands. Winds will be an issue for a time as well gusting between 30-35 mph in Foxboro for the game to as high as a few gusts near 50 mph over southeast areas into early Monday.
Areas most likely to see some snow out of this system appears to be west of the Connecticut River Valley. Just some back end flakes though as it looks. Perhaps some accumulation over southern Vermont and NW Massachusetts 

Into Next week: A drying, cold west/northwest wind comes into the area on Monday and most of Tuesday before we start to see some more action approach.
The northern branch of the Jet stream will remain active as a clipper approaches mid week, that could become enhanced near the shores with some interaction with the moist sub tropical jet. This has the potential to drop some accumulation snow across the region. 
Overall it still is a rather progressive pattern. It is the reason we can see such cold temperatures followed quickly by a storm that brings rain. It is not the first time this year! Too much movement and motion of high pressure and low pressure centers will do it every time. There are and have been indications of developing high latitude blocking near Greenland from time to time in the weeks ahead and more of an influence from that sub tropical jet. The blocking signals never really hold strong though (yet). It then becomes a situation and pattern of timing all these pieces together in order to get a decent snowstorm in here. Unless all the pieces gel, we are left with weaker "systems" like we have seen throughout the entire season to this point. I believe conditions ahead favor an increase chance at this occurring form here out out right through February. Whether it will please all the die hard snow lovers, I am not sure but the potential is there for some white stuff. Not much more to ask for at this point. 
I wish I could go further into details about the pattern and specifics with it ahead but can not do so at this time. I can say with a great deal of confidence that winter is not over. 
Thank you for taking the time to read. Go Pats !  ~Anthony