Winter Storm February 8, 2016

*MAJOR COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING OF THE CAROLINA'S TODAY*  

High pressure in control over the area today will make for fair weather conditions with increasing cloudiness and mild temperatures in the low 40's across most of the region ahead of the approaching large ocean storm that will bring fringe effects to a large portion of the area especially near the eastern shores. 

Click on images for a larger view

A rich, large and powerful ocean storm is exploding off the coast of the Carolina's today. The placement of the current storm and the environment in which it is in will allow for explosive cyclogenesis this eve and a deepening surface low passing east of the Outer Banks, feeding off the mild sea surface temperature's of the Gulf Stream, traveling northeast until it eventually will pass about 100 miles SE of the 40/70 "Benchmark" at some point tomorrow morning. A pass this far south and east would typically mean a rather minor to non- event for our region, though due to the very large size and intensity of this developing storm, it will brush the region with its western flank bringing accumulating snow, especially to the east & southeast if SNE, gusty winds, large ocean swells and potential for moderate coastal flooding.

The main reason eastern area's see the brunt is the simple fact that it is the area closest to the center of this major ocean ocean storm. In addition to that, the anti-cyclonic flow and an east/northeast  wind around the storm puts parts of eastern Massachusetts at high risk for some ocean enhancement and that will be the reason for the likely the highest snow totals. This includes parts of Plymouth and Bristol counties, perhaps western Barnstable County.. The intensity of the winds off the ocean in that ENE direction and the abnormally mild ocean waters means sufficient enough low level moisture (typically tough for many models to pick up on)  and a push quite a ways inland of the ocean enhanced snow. Further west  across the region will be a very dry, fluffy snow accumulation of a few inches for most as of now as interaction with another low pressure system off to the west of the region and a energetic upper level vortex center swings in from the west . The problem lies in just how much moisture can be squeezed out for central and western SNE under a colder and drier airmass. We will have to watch radar trends today and overnight for this to become more clear.  

 For now a WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for most of eastern SNE as well as coastal hazards . The Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Monday morning right through Tuesday morning. A watch means that conditions are favorable for accumulating snow of  6" or more. As soon as the NWS assumes this is likely, it will go to  warning at some point. I do have a good feeling that Winter Weather advisories will also be posted at some point  today for locations further inland . This is just one aspect of the forecast. Winds and large ocean swells with hit the eastern ocean shores through the day on Monday. Model images below show these  additional threats with this incoming system. The Combination of snow falling heavy at times to the east and potential sustained winds near tropical storm force with gusts near 50-65mph likely at the shores brings the likelihood of near Blizzard conditions to parts of the region which will be outlined on the snow map that follows in this post. Gusty winds will extend further inland and create some blowing snow and low visibilities at times. Large waves and swells will bring some coastal flooding at high tide. This is especially the case from Cape Ann to Winthrop into the South Shore of Massachusetts and the Outer Cape and Nantucket .  

Below I have put together this simulated Winterized radar loop to give a general idea of what is to unfold on Monday 

Snow should arrive from the south during the pre-dawn hours of Monday and overspread most of the affected area by 9am. The brunt of the storm appears to be during the late morning and afternoon hours, and again, focused across eastern sections. While the main storm gets kicked well away from the region Monday evening, snow, scattered at times and of varying intensity will continue for the region right into Tuesday and possibly right into Wednesday as well  as a potent upper level vortex and weak low pressure systems swings in from the Great Lakes. There is the likelihood of some inverted trough induced snow as well, just very hard to pinpoint location and time at the moment. Addition accumulations are quite likely at times. Very cold air takes over the region, aided by a fresh snowpack for many into next weekend. It looks quite brutal too ! Deep Winter has arrived to Southern New England. !

EXPECTED SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY

( Additional snowfall is likely at times Tues-Weds)

  

After an unsettled Thursday, more rain during the eve into Friday Morning

SNE & Beyond Forecast Blog for June 4, 2015

Where to start....Well, lets recap May. Two significant headlines for the month for most of Southern New England. 1: Up until the final couple days many locations in the area were experiencing the driest May on record. Late rains squashed the reality of that occurring. 2: It was a very warm May ! In fact, the warmest on record for Hartford (Bradley Int. Airport) and 10th warmest for Boston (Logan Airport). Pretty impressive considering that February was the coldest on record for both cities. Now most SNE locations have gotten off to a very chilly start to June, especially coastal locations. In fact ,Boston is off to its coolest start 4 days in to June on record ! The pendulum keeps swinging this year. 

(click on all images for a larger view)

Short Term Forecast: Increasing clouds are moving into the region this eve and will continue to do so, especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike ahead of a developing storm system off the Carolina's that is slowly moving to the ENE. This system wont bring significant impacts to the region but Friday is certainly not as nice as today was with mostly cloudy skies developing for most. It looks mainly overcast the closer you move to the eastern and southeastern shores. Showers will move into southeast locations during the late afternoon and especially the evening hours and overnight into very early Saturday. 

Best chance of this but not limited to, is Cape Cod & the Islands where elevated precipitable water values may lead to some heavier showers and downpours. Some locations could see 1/2"-1" of rain from this. It is a close call and close shave though. There also is an outside chance at a rumble of thunder. Winds will be light and variable throughout the day. High temps will be near either side of 70° for most inland locations, will cooler reading near the coast in the upper 50's and 60's.

Saturday will feature some morning and early afternoon clouds, and even a few showers for SE Mass. but developing sunshine thereafter towards the late afternoon and early evening . You will notice humidity creeping up as well as early as Saturday morning. High temperatures will be warmer on Saturday , especially inland where many locations will near 80°. Areas near The CT River and Pioneer Valley could get into the low 80's.  We shall see. This depends highly on the amount of sunshine that develops. The shorelines will be much cooler with a NNE wind developing. One other thing to watch for is some developing gusty NNE winds for SE Mass & Cape Cod & the Islands. Gusts are likely to range between 25-35mph. 

Mid-Long Term Outlook: Sunday is looking dry with just some fair weather clouds developing during the afternoon hours. Winds light and variable. High's will top off in the 70's for most, but again, cooler at the shores. Increasing clouds Monday with the threat of showers and storms moving in to the region late evening ahead of a frontal boundary. The front looks to slow a bit approaching the shores so the showers/downpours and maybe some thunder should linger for central and especially eastern parts of the region into Tuesday morning. 

It appears as though starting Wednesday of next week , temperatures will warm quite a bit to the point that some locations may approach 90° by next Friday. That is a long way out there , so for now will just keep an eye on it. As of now the best shot for Thunder next week as we turn up the heat and humidity after hump day appears to be Thursday. 

Tropics: The 2015 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season started on Monday. We have already seen the formation of tropical Storm Ana. There were weak signs that Bill could be close to forming near the upcoming weekend,, but chances of that occurrence seem much lower than a few days ago. Though there still appears to be a slight chance at development into next wk as a closed low develops off the eastern seaboard and a broad surface low center. Ocean waters are quite warm to the south of Southern New England this late Spring so I will still keep an eye on this system. 

Meanwhile over in the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Blanca which was a category 4 storm just yesterday has run into an environment with increased shear and has cause here to weaken to a Cat 2 today. This is great news considering she has an eye on the Baja Peninsula. 

Below is a nice loop of the latest Infrared satellite of Hurricane Blanca. She is the first cat 2 storm to be near her current location since Hurricane Bud in 2012.

Thank you for reading !       ~Anthony S. 

On & On We Go..A Classic Long New England Winter

Well, after a few days featuring a "Spring feel" around Southern New England (which I must admit, it did feel good !) we are back into a Winter type pattern, one that continues to feature below normal temperatures and the potential of snow/winter events. Many of us are living through a good ol fashion long New England winter that we heard of as kids and breaking many records along the way for many. One that will soon not be forgotten and one that seems to just not want to die. The bitter cold winds of today are reminding us of this harsh reality and still with a ton of cold, arctic air over Canada and an active northern branch of the jet stream, there is no clear signal of Spring- type weather arriving just yet. Every time we start to make progress, we go back the other way as a western US ridge pumps the heat to our west resulting in eastern troughiness and mostly normal to colder than avg temps around here. I do not see a clear end to it just yet.
Our next system comes in Friday and should persist into Saturday morning. Important to note right off the bat that this will not be a significant storm with significant impacts. It simply does not have the power to produce big numbers or any significant coastal effects to the region and is moving fairly quickly.
Light snow or even a light mix should break out across the region from southwest to northeast Friday late morning into the early afternoon hours. As precipitation becomes more steady later in the afternoon and early evening hours , most will be seeing snow falling. It could be a tricky afternoon commute. Snow will persist for most the evening hours into very early Saturday morning for most. Heaviest bands should be confined to the south of the Massachusetts Turnpike where the most moist air will be at low and mid levels and closer to the weak storm center. Due to a weak storm center and no upper level support, I do think we will be at least tracking a mix line close to the south coast of SNE later Fri eve and early Sat. Some mixing should make it in for a time at least up to the Cape Cod Canal, though this could depend highly on the intensity of the precip, so will have to watch that progression closely at that time. Either way, snow ratio's do not appear very high. It is a case of where there is the most moisture, there will be lower ratio's, so a trade off of sorts in that regards. Mix and or snow should wrap up by noon Saturday but we will have to keep an eye on the chance of additional snow showers/squalls with a fresh injection of cold air and northwest winds on the storms backside. Very cold Sunday with the likely potential of even a few more snow showers/squalls. No real warm up in sight that I see with even more winter type events potentially looming ahead.
Below is my best shot at snow totals Friday into Saturday. I will continue to evaluate model trends, satellite and even some analogs and see where we stand tomorrow. If anything I think some higher amounts could shift to the southwest. Thank you for reading !    ~Anthony S.

Another Weekend Winter System

Sure felt nice out there on this last day of February 2015 didn't it? What an incredible recording breaking extreme month it was though. The numbers are staggering. One of the coldest on record for many and the snowiest month ever for many as well. I will have a comprehensive round up of the historical month in a few days , but for now there is some more wintry weather to talk about. It will be the 6th weekend in a row with a winter storm affecting the region !

The storm system we are watching is rather weak but has a decent precip field associated with it due to a nice interaction with the sub tropical jet and some Gulf and Atlantic moisture being drawn into it. The system is now dropping snow across the nation's heartland and will follow the jet stream right into Southern New England, arriving late Sunday morning or early afternoon spreading a swath of accumulating snow into the area. The precip will have to overcome a layer of dry air at the onset, so snow should start off fairly light. Once we saturate the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere , it should fall at a good clip Sunday late afternoon and eve for most areas. We will have to watch a mix line coming close to the south coast, especially for Cape Cod and the Islands. Due to that and the likelihood of lower snow to liquid ratio's down there, I have held amounts back a bit there. I do not foresee any coastal concerns with wind or flooding, but the winds will certainly increase behind the storm system on Monday with a fresh injection of arctic air taking over the region. The snow/mix should wrap up from west to east Monday morning. Below is a map of the snowfall amounts I am expecting. Areas near and south of the pink dotted line at least run a risk of some mixing.

 

More Cold & Snow Is In The Forecast Ahead

There is a big winter storm starting to affect portions of the southeast US this afternoon. It looks to bring heavy accumulations of snow and ice to Tennessee again, also into West Virginia, Virginia and even North Carolina. Lighter snows should clip southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey , southern New York State and Southern New England later this eve through Thursday eve. 

The Jet stream looks to take this just far enough south to spare Southern New England from another significant snowfall, though it does not appear we will escape from seeing at least a few flakes and some light fluffy accumulations once again from this next storm system. The center of the storm will pass well southeast of Nantucket tomorrow eve. The air will be quite dry especially for areas near and north of the Massachusetts Turnpike, so not expecting much if any accums there but further to the south the northern fringe of the ocean storm snow shield should bring light snow into the region. Like this mornings system, mid levels are quite dry, but closer to the surface there will be more moist air and just enough to squeeze out some fluffy flakes to areas near the South Coast. Important to note the system still could tick north a bit, so I am watching that potential closely still today (see graphic below).

Click on Images for a larger view

One other factor here will be developing NNE winds which will lead to some ocean effect or ocean enhancement for parts of eastern Massachusetts, esp the South Shore and Cape Cod.

 The air will be plenty cold enough at all levels to support snow. No issues with any mixing. Light snow could break out as early as 10am- noontime along the south coast of Connecticut and Rhode Island and more towards 1-2pm for areas of eastern MA, Cape Cod and the Islands. Most locations are done by dark , except for the Cape and the Islands where some ocean effect light snow could continue through the eve. 

High temperatures on Thursday throughout Southern New England will range from about 16° to the far NW to about  25-30° on Nantucket. Again, a fairly low impact event though the timing could cause some issues near the shores during Thursdays afternoon/eve commute with reduced visibility and slick spots on any untreated surfaces. 

The cold is not in any rush to go anywhere across New England as we approach March, but the jet stream will lift north this weekend into next week creating a boundary for more precipitation and storminess to form. We should be on the cold side of that again ! Below are my thoughts for accumulations tomorrow  Stay tuned and thank you for reading     ~Anthony  

2014-2015 Seasonal Snowfall Totals (updated 2/25)

*New Weather Blog* Updated 5pm 1/16/15

An arctic front is crossing the region this evening. It brought with it some snow squalls and gusty winds. Now we will watch the temperatures drop rapidly this evening as a large, but brief dome of high pressure begins to settle in over Southern New England bringing much colder air and very low windchill's. High pressure moves off the coast allowing for our next system to approach for Sunday into very early on Monday. More arctic air engulfs the area next week with a couple chances of snowfall as the northern branch of the jet stream remains active with some sub tropical jet stream interactions.  

A rather robust Alberta clipper is forming near the US/Canada border near Montana and the Dakota's, meanwhile high pressure situated over the Gulf States is sliding away allowing for an increase in moisture along the sub tropical jet stream. These 2 pieces meet up right over Southern New England on Sunday. The track of low pressure looks to be just a bit too far to the west along with a negative tilt to the jet stream to allow for a flow off the relatively mild ocean waters to the south of Southern New England into the region spelling out a mostly rain event for the area.  
                                                                    CLICK ON IMAGES FOR A LARGER VIEW

Further Storm Details : Light, scattered rain looks to break out across the region from south/southwest to north/northeast during the mid to late morning hours on Sunday and becoming heavier during the afternoon into the early evening with a few downpours and very gusty winds. It is a thin line of precipitation and is likely offshore near/after midnight Monday. There will be a very tight rain/snow line out back in western SNE, where some snow is possible. I am not sure much accumulates due to a rush of colder and more importantly, drier air is ushered in on the west side of the storm system. High temperatures will vary on Sunday but look to be in the upper 30's to the northwest (falling through the day) to to near 50° on Cape Cod & the Islands. Winds will be an issue for a time as well gusting between 30-35 mph in Foxboro for the game to as high as a few gusts near 50 mph over southeast areas into early Monday.
Areas most likely to see some snow out of this system appears to be west of the Connecticut River Valley. Just some back end flakes though as it looks. Perhaps some accumulation over southern Vermont and NW Massachusetts 

Into Next week: A drying, cold west/northwest wind comes into the area on Monday and most of Tuesday before we start to see some more action approach.
The northern branch of the Jet stream will remain active as a clipper approaches mid week, that could become enhanced near the shores with some interaction with the moist sub tropical jet. This has the potential to drop some accumulation snow across the region. 
Overall it still is a rather progressive pattern. It is the reason we can see such cold temperatures followed quickly by a storm that brings rain. It is not the first time this year! Too much movement and motion of high pressure and low pressure centers will do it every time. There are and have been indications of developing high latitude blocking near Greenland from time to time in the weeks ahead and more of an influence from that sub tropical jet. The blocking signals never really hold strong though (yet). It then becomes a situation and pattern of timing all these pieces together in order to get a decent snowstorm in here. Unless all the pieces gel, we are left with weaker "systems" like we have seen throughout the entire season to this point. I believe conditions ahead favor an increase chance at this occurring form here out out right through February. Whether it will please all the die hard snow lovers, I am not sure but the potential is there for some white stuff. Not much more to ask for at this point. 
I wish I could go further into details about the pattern and specifics with it ahead but can not do so at this time. I can say with a great deal of confidence that winter is not over. 
Thank you for taking the time to read. Go Pats !  ~Anthony

                               

                                     

Where We Have Been and Where We Are Going

     So, lets cut right to the chase shall we. The question that is on many minds, where is the snow? Well, its in Maine, head north !  Before I can get into that lets discuss how we have gotten to where we are now this season. First there was a drought, but we have certainly have taken care of that for the most part during the past 60 days or so with well above normal precipitation observed for most locations in Southern New England. In the temperature department , November featured below average temperatures for most the area, now into December we are seeing slightly above avg temps. I thought it would be a bit cooler, but it has not. The Climate Prediction Center has been right on though for the most part. We will see how the rest of the month shapes up, but I can tell you there are very good signals of cooler air heading into January. It has been a fairly "normal" period of weather in recent months, no real extremes occurred other than some daily precipitation records. The map below shows the daily high and low temps for Hartford CT since October. Nothing really jumps out in either direction and only one extreme was reached, and that was a record high of 67° on November 12. 

Click on images for larger views

November did feature a few snow "events" though. Four for some communities ! That is quite rare, and actually many folks across SNE saw more snow in November than what they have received thus far in December. Thankfully no snow was observed in October this season which is a good thing as many of you know I have a strong belief that seeing snow during October is a  curse for snowfall ahead. So as we sit here today on December 18, just a week away from Christmas and most SNE locations are right around either side of avg snowfall to date thus far, though I feel we need to get a decent storm in here before the month comes to a close if you really want that "big" winter. Why? A look back in time to past seasons shows that this month is critical towards the big one. Using Boston for December, the years between 1996 and 2003 there was not one December that featured more than a total of 10" for the month. Only ONE of those seasons finished above normal. 1981-1992, same thing , not one December even hit 10" of snow and only 2 of those seasons even finished above avg which is around 42" . History says we really need to get one before December wraps up. 

    

So that's a little write up on where we have been and now to touch on where we may be heading. We know for the past two months it has been quite active but we have lacked cold high pressure along the Canada/New England border that is necessary to lock in cold air as storms approach. You see, when coastal storms approach, they come with mild air from the tropics or sub tropics and from the moist Atlantic Ocean, its what feeds storms into cyclogenesis and when you lack a dome of *established* cold air, it is very hard to get a true SNE Snowstorm in the month of December. There is another wildcard this season so far too and that is well above avg SST's (sea surface temperatures) off the Mid-Atlantic coast right up into the Gulf of Maine. What this means is any onshore wind flow (which usually occurs as a storm is approaching and during it for a time till winds shift) brings milder air into coastal locations. Inland areas are less effected but still to an extent depending on the intensity of the winds and direction. We really need to get these ocean temps down before we can get too excited along the coast for "snowstorms" .

Here is a map showing those current SST anomalies. You can clearly see they are running well above avg.

The Pattern ahead looks to remain very active, but as discussed previously , its been mild for December for many so far, how do we change that and where do forecasters look for that big "pattern change" ? Well, there are a few places, 1st off models, but most of all teleconnections and more specifically The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North American Oscillation (NAO) . What you look for in a big pattern change is sharp changes in these phases, the graphs below show that we are heading in that direction and in a favorable direction with AO projected to head down as well as the NAO which will provide for some much needed Greenland Blocking . 

There is the hope for the snowlovers right there as we move into January, so lets see how this pans outs. Models are suggesting a huge dip in the jet stream in the days ahead but they are not in total agreement as to where the eastern edge of the dip/trough sets up and its eventual tilt which is very important along the East Coast. The Image below is a projection from the GFS model showing the 500mb height anomalies for Christmas Eve time frame. Notice the big ridging off to the northeast producing a high block, keeping storminess over the Northeast US. It's tilt is not quite ideal but could do the trick. Think of the red, yellow & orange (& green here) as a brick wall. We just have to watch trends, it already has shifted a bit in recent days. 

There are the signals that should bring us into a more conducive Winter pattern. Very anomalous. Often anomalous projections lead to anomalous results ! 

The forecast ahead is difficult past some ocean effect moisture on Sat & Sunday but we will likely track a wave of low pressure up the coast Saturday into Tuesday that looks to bring some rain and snow/mix for favored locations to some areas most likely Tuesday before the potential of a very large storm system that likely will move off to our west keeping us in the warm sector and mostly rain and wind on Christmas Eve into early Christmas morning as Santa is making his deliveries which the big fella will have a hard time doing over the Northeast, but something tells me he will get er done. Is there a chance the storm trends colder? Outside shot, yes. We would need to redevelop a new coastal low for that to occur, while that may happen, the negative tilt to the jet would still bring in marine air in regardless. This storm does bring BIG changes in its wake though and don't be surprised to see a few festive snow flakes flying around on Christmas Day ! Now that would be nice. Maps below are for Christmas Eve. Someone is going to have to get Santa a windbreaker for his flight into the Northeast   

A reminder: The first official full day of Winter occurs on Monday December 22 and will end on Thursday March 19th. The Southern New England Weather forecast remains calling for below normal temperatures and snowfall near either side of average. Thank you for reading.   ~Anthony 

Initial Graphical Forecast Thoughts on Invest 96

Year-to-Date #SNE Weather Stats

Precipitation and Wind observations April 15-16, 2014

Winds of Change

The winds of change are upon us ! They brought many 70's the past couple days and will bring other changes over the next couple of days but you may not like them this time.
A powerful early Spring cold front will be approaching the region Tuesday bringing with it scattered early downpours which will become more widespread as Tuesday wears on. Overall the entire region is prone to about an 1-1.5" of rain with a few isolated higher amounts possible, especially over Connecticut.  For this reason there is a  * Areal Flood Watch* is up.  And If you think the winds were strong today, wait till tomorrow and tomorrow eve.

They will scream from the south with gusts between 40-55 mph. A few isolated higher gusts are certainly possible over the hills and over Cape Cod & the Islands. I would expect at least widespread Wind Advisories to be issued for tomorrow shortly. For now though, Gale Warnings are up for the waters just off our coastlines from 2pm Tuesday through 6am Wednesday.  Gusts of this magnitude are certainly capable of isolated damage and power outages. As the strong cold front passes the region late Tuesday into Wednesday wind will shift to the west/northwest and still be gusty especially early on Wednesday as they usher in much colder air. Its during this time (late Tues night-early Weds) that some cold air aloft will creep in and marginal surface temperatures snow for may will bring the potential for heavy rain to turn to some wet snow flakes over the higher elevations and western Southern New England. Believe it or not the potential is there for a slushy inch or two ! Some wet flakes could even make it all the way to to the coast. Wednesday we are left with morning lows near freezing and high temperatures that will struggle to get of the upper 40's and low 50's with developing sunshine during the afternoon. A frost is likely Thursday am and again highs struggling to get out of the upper 40's and low 50's even with quite a bit of mid April sunshine. Quite impressive!   Cool weather looks to rule right into the coming weekend.    ~Anthony

March 25-26, 2014 Storm Graphics

CLICK ON THE IMAGE FOR A LARGER VIEW

Forecast Thoughts For Potential Major Nor'easter Tues-Weds 3/25-26

   Highs today were near 60° for portions of the area but all eyes continue to be on what now appears to be a significant early Spring Nor'easter for much of the region later on Tuesday into Wednesday morning with the brunt of the effects expected over the eastern sections of Southern New England.

Click on all images for a larger view

   OVERVIEW: Arctic air looks to settle in Sunday eve and especially Monday where we could see record low maximum temps and begin to set the stage for a decent snowstorm  and what looks to be the first significant one since Feb 18th I believe. Northern energy for the pending storm is now entering the Pacific Northwest and will dive SE towards the Southeastern US states and merge with a southern based sub-tropical jet and form a storm off the Carolina's early in the day on Tuesday as the upper levels of the atmosphere dig a deep amplified trough over the East Coast Tuesday eve sending a phased storm off to the north/northeast that will undergo meteorological bombgenesis in response to rich Atlantic Ocean moisture and a clash of above normal sea surface temperatures and below normal SST's along its track and an assist from the Gulf Stream. Low pressure will pass just outside the 40/70 benchmark early Wednesday somewhere around 970 millibars, perhaps even lower  before heading towards Nova Scotia late Wednesday.

   TIMING : Flurries and light snow could break out as early as Tuesday am as upper level energy over the Ohio River Valley starts to interact with building moisture off to the south as the main storm takes shape near or off the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Flurries, perhaps a period of light snow should continue through the daylight hours before intensity will pick up south to north through the evening hours with the peak of the storm occurring overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday before  it pulls off to the northeast.
   IMPACTS & EFFECTS: Very strong signals continue to indicate the most significant effects and impacts will be felt near coastal locations. The heaviest snow and strongest winds are likely near the coastal plain. Banding of heavy snow is likely for eastern SNE especially near and inside interstate 495 in eastern Massachusetts as this area will be closest to the storm center and in the area of greatest signaled vertical motion. Unlike previous storms where there had been a sharp cutoff due to incredibly dry air contrast to the north and northwest of the storm, this one will have decent mid level moisture at least at the get go to spread light accumulating snow to the entire region before the storm really blows up and pulls the heaviest snow and banding closer to the coast and especially over the Cape and Islands. It will be very hard to see thermal profiles rise to the point where any mix would be involved so this is a predominantly snow event. Winter Storm warning headlines are very possible and even a Blizzard Watch could be warranted near the eastern Shores. The other issue and it could be a BIG one is the potential for powerful sustained  winds, again affecting the coast the most. There are strong signals of potentially damaging wind gusts along the immediate shore to Cape Cod and the Islands as the storm continues to intensify passing by.  There is a big difference between a weakening storm system and an intensifying one  like this will be . Enough signals have been there that I feel  *High Wind Warnings* are likely near the shores with even  *Wind Advisories* possibly further inland. Images below show the sustained and gust potentials during the brunt of the storm overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Wave heights are expected to grow to 15-20 feet near or just off our coastlines. The Wednesday high tide cycle will have to be closely monitored for likely splash over and potential for moderate coastal flooding. This aspect is very dependent on exactly how close that low center comes. There is great agreement as of now but slight shifts are still likely.
   So now to answer the big question I am sure many of you are asking. How much snow?  Its still a bit early to tag numbers for certain locations, however,  I believe I will be able to estimate further by this time tomorrow. In the map below it shows the best probability of seeing and exceeding 6" of snow. Confidence is quite high here, and if it  all comes together, as it has the potential to do so, someone will come away with a foot, perhaps a bit more when all is said and done Wednesday ino mid-day over eastern SNE.

Thats the skinny on the system as I see it right now. I do not expect many drastic changes but do stay tuned to me on twitter and facebook if they should arise between now and then. The good news is we could hit 60° by Friday with a better chance Saturday and we may finally be able to put the snow behind us and move forward to enjoy 'Spring'. Thank you for reading     ~Anthony

A Few Forecast Thoughts

 Though we do have a couple weather ‘systems’ approaching before , my eyes continue to be fixed on the March 25-27th timeframe. I have shared a few images on twitter in recent days, but the fact is they are only one run of one operational model. Take note though that there have been signals of this in guidance for almost 5 days now ! Regardless if they have been strong signals (some very intense) or weak, the fact remains that it looks to be an upper level pattern that is prone to producing right into earl April and continued strong signals of anonymously cold air as well. That has not changed. And when you have cold in late winter and early Spring, some pretty dramatic occurrences can occur whether it be a severe weather outbreak or even a major winter storm.  There are many past events of such and some in New England need no introduction. Its just the nature of the pattern , temperature gradients across the CONUS during this time of year. It is more volatile than any other part of the calendar year. Always need to be on your toes this time of year even though most seasons the transition from Winter to Spring does goes fairly smooth.
  Its important to note that it is ok to share model images of potential and I would not do it out of just the fantasy of wanting a storm or because it is the most dramatic solution on the table. I am not lazy like that and have been observing (30yrs) and forecasting weather for quite some time and know better and have a great , deep respect of weather. When I see signals I mention potential whether it is 10 days out or a sneak attack in a much shorter timeframe. Aside from just many operation model runs and signals of such through global ensemble guidance signals for the 3/25-27 timeframe there have been signals of a potentially brief but importantly timed pattern change in the upper levels of our atmosphere. Two of importance. A building of a western US ridge with indication of a building positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) . This in turn sends/keeps a deep trough over the eastern US. Yes this has occurred  recently and we have escaped potentials but when there are also signals of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at least trending towards a negative phase (downstream Greenland blocking) or potentially going slightly negative near the time frame it is certainly a potential to keep an eye on . It is a formula/combination that has not  occurred much this year despite the above normal snowfall for most.  In fact the last time such occurred was mid January . Could I be dead wrong? Of course I could and have been quite a few times this year but it will not stop me from moving forward.
  There really are no details set in stone being still a week or so out but feel it would be best to surely keep at least an eye on this due to the time of year and certain plans, some vital that many people and businesses make as we transition from Winter to Spring. Thank You for reading and stay tuned.    ~Anthony

OVERVIEW: Big winter storm approaching the Northeast. Anomalously strong March low pressure currently located over Missouri will track east/north east and pass over Southern New England early Thursday am around 978mb ! This storm will bring a major snowfall to northern New England. With the storm track expected to track over/just south of Long Island this brings mild temperatures both at the surface and aloft to begin with rain changing to a period of wintry precipitation with crashing temperatures on the back side of strengthening low pressure moving over and northeast of Southern New England early Thursday am. This a a huge snowstorm and great news for ski country. Have a look at the 6 hr snowfall animation I put together for Weds-Thurs

SNE IMPACTS & TIMING: Heaviest snowfall expected to remain north of SNE. That does not mean we will escape impacts from this storm. It appears as though 1-2" of rainfall is likely across the region. The potential is there for a gusty thunderstorm as well Wednesday evening . South winds ahead of the storm may gust 35-45mph along south coastal locations Weds eve/early Thurs.  Light rain showers break out Wednesday morning from SW-NE and become steadier as the day goes on as low pressure approaches from the WSW. With low pressure moving over and eventually starting to pull off the the north east, rain will start to turn into a wintry mix over western SNE Weds eve into pre-dawn Thursday as colder air rushes in behind the departing storm. This creates an issue with a potential flash freeze. Even a small amount of snow or mix with temperatures crashing can create big problems. The Thursday morning commute looks rough. Light snow/mix showers could continue right into the early afternoon Thursday near the coast. Not much accumulation expected anywhere across SNE, but it wont take much with the expected crash in temperatures. Below is a graphic showing general precipitation types and timing potential with the upcoming storm.

CLICK ON IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW                                                     

EXPECTED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SNOWFALL THROUGH  THURSDAY MIDDAY 

More Snow Tuesday, possible wintry mix Wednesday, then changes !

Here we go again Southern New England ! Yes there is a brief and much needed warm-up approaching us Thursday through Sunday but before then we must grind through another period of accumulating snow for much of the region on Tuesday and likely a bit more later on Wednesday. It has been relentless this season.

  WARNINGS & ADVISORIES:  In advance of the storm system all of Connecticut (except the extreme SE part of the state) , central and northern Rhode Island and much of Massachusetts  (away from areas S&E of RT 24)  are under a Winter Weather Advisory for much of Tuesday. Winter Storm Warnings are up for parts of Worcester County north and east into Southern New Hampshire away from the Seacoast.            

  THE SETUP: The System we are watching has brought some heavy snowfall rates to the Chicago area today and reports of thundersnow. This is all associated with a energetic northern stream pool of upper level energy. This energy will be over the eastern Great Lakes by early Tuesday and will form a new low just off the Southern New England coastlines into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday evening and bring us our snowfall. Enough mild air will flow in to make for a mix with rain over southeast portions and likely be mostly rain over Cape Cod and the Islands, so not much if any snowfall is expected 

  TIMING: Snow appears to break out over southwest Connecticut between 7-10am and progress off to the northeast thereafter reaching far northeastern Massachusetts between 11am-2pm give or take. With impressive indications of vertical upward velocity at 700 mb (10,000 ft above) there is the potential for brief snowfall rates to reach or exceed 1" per hour with even the possibility of thunder. This will have impacts on the afternoon and evening commute east of Worcester, Ma up and down Southern New England. Below I have put together a animated simulated radar loop giving a general idea of how precipitation should develop and progress through the day on Tuesday.

   SNOWFALL: Away from the immediate shores and parts of southeast CT, RI & Ma we are looking at a general 2-5" snowfall with this. There will be a couple areas that have a chance to exceed 5" of snowfall though and this will be northern Worcester county into northeast Mass into SE New Hampshire. The reason for less snowfall near the coast this go around is mainly due to low pressure tucked close to our coastlines Tuesday and the projections of a south/southeast onshore wind direction during heaviest period of precipitation.

   OTHER IMPACTS: This is not a typical 'snowstorm' or coastal storm so I am not expected too many other  impacts of significance though we could see some sustained SE winds between 20-30 mph developing over coastal Massachusetts and especially Cape Cod and the Islands as these locations will be nearest to developing and likely  intensifying low pressure off the coast.  Much of Southern New England will see some gusts at times 25-35 mph with  perhaps a few near/over 40mph on the Cape & the Islands Tuesday afternoon and evening.

   WHATS AHEAD ?: Milder weather !  Before we get there though we have a transition day shaping up for wednesday with another potential event with weak low pressure trying to form off of the New Jersey coast Wednesday afternoon which looks to bring  a mix of wet snow and rain to portions of the area. It currently favors central and east the most. I will surely have more details on that potential after Tuesday's event passes and I can get a quick glance at exactly how the upper level pattern appears at that point.  Beyond Wednesday  a south/southwest flow develops along with warming at the mid levels which will bring surface temperatures into the upper 30's to low 40's for much of the area Thursday with a few rain showers possibly brief icing transitioning to rain at night into much of Friday with a storm well off to our northwest and trailing cold front passage slated. Highs on Friday look to soar into the 40's and 50's to near 60 for some ! It looks a bit cooler but mild again Saturday and early Sunday with colder air arriving late with a few rain or snow showers possible.  All indications continue to bring us into a  much colder and potentially stormy pattern once again thereafter.  Thank you for reading.   ~Anthony 

Light Snow Approaching. Watching Potential Storm Mid Next Week

Clouds are increasing this evening ahead of a northern branch disturbance (shortwave) moving east over the lower Great Lakes. It has produced a general Coating-4" to our west. There will be no big storm as I once thought was possible as that has now sped up and is missing off to our south and east this eve but there is enough energy with this shortwave to produce periods of light snow Sunday into Monday across Southern New England. Snow showers and periods of light snow will move in from west to east during Sunday. Before its arrival there could be some ocean effect snow showers as winds shift from west to northwest and to north that may affect parts of Cape Ann and Provincetown. Overall this is a minor event and looks to drop a coating to 2" with just a small chance at this time of a few locations seeing over 2"

This favors the south and east coasts. The storm simply is moving too quickly to produce more with no real moisture source and it being under a fast moving zonal jet stream. It will be all snow though and a bit of a fluff factor too so thats where we see a high end potential. It appears we remain cold for the foreseeable future and need to watch for another storm during the middle of next week. This would include the southern moist jet so the potential is there for a coastal storm but in the wake of the Sunday into Monday disturbance a large, cold dome of high pressure settles in and exactly how quick it releases or how long it decides to hold will make all the difference in the forecast for a potential snowstorm, a mix storm or even a suppressed storm missing out to sea. It is simply where we are at this point with that one and until we figure out how and where the upper levels will steer this thing there will be more questions than answers. I will surely be monitoring its every move and will keep you up to date on that.

January Ends On A Quiet Note. February Starts Active

   January has come to an end with monthly temperatures averaging near or slightly below normal for much of Southern New England while many saw snowfall well above avg. Now its onto February, by far my favorite month to forecast in SNE and with signals of a very active pattern in the first week at least there are plenty opportunities to do such. February is know for some monster storms in this region (a few of which need no introduction) and actually 6 out of 10 of Boston’s top 10 snowfalls have occurred in the month of February and with the signals of an active pattern and a few snow chances for many in the near future, I think its safe to say that winter is far from over regardless of what that little rodent says on Sunday.
   The first system we are watching and quickly approaching is slated for Monday. Right now the energy for that is diving south/southeast from the Pacific Northwest towards Texas. It picks up some Gulf of Mexico moisture and heads off the northeast late tomorrow and early Monday. It’s a quick mover due to lack of blocking to our north but it packs a bit of a punch especially to our south once again.  Low Pressure forms over Mississippi/Alabama Late Sun eve, early Mon and cuts through the southern Appalachians before curving off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic northeast of the Outer banks of North Carolina Monday afternoon. This points to areas of Virginia to New Jersey in the meat of the precipitation through Monday afternoon, though SNE will be on the northern edge of this storm. With a 1028MB high off to the west pushing this and 1024MB high influence along the Ma & VT/NH borders, once again the precipitation favors areas to the south of the Mass Pike. Light snow should break out Monday morning along the south coast of SNE and slowly creep northeast to the Mass Pike by midday before coming to a halt and slipping off to the east by the evening. 

   As far as precip type goes, it is mostly snow as temperatures aloft support such but surface temps will be marginal for many so it does not appear to be a “fluff factor; event to which we have become quite accustomed to this year. It will be a wetter type snow and even a few raindrops mixing in for SE Mass. and Cape Cod & the Islands. As far as amounts go it looks like a general slushy coating-2” with a few locations seeing near or over 3” of snow favoring near the extreme south coast. Not much if any wind expected with this so impacts are minor with this event.

   We get a brief break in the action Tuesday , but then all eyes turn off to our southwest again with building Gulf of Mexico moisture being driven by a very energetic upper level disturbance which will steer all that moisture northeast towards SNE Late Tuesday night and Wednesday. A surface low will work up to the Ohio River Valley , begin to transfer its energy to a secondary low near the Delmarva Peninsula. With this secondary low offshore, it keeps SNE on the cold side of this storm for the most part and with anonymously cold ocean temperatures makes any wind flow off the ocean help retain cold to keep this mostly a snow storm and quite potentially a sizable one (over 6").  The air above will be marginal though, so periods of freezing rain also possible for some. There will be a mix line for a time and that should become much more clear hopefully by later Sunday as the main energy for that storm enters the West coast and more data gets fed into guidance. There is no doubt of the storm occurring though. Another storm looks likely next weekend too ! Busy Pattern. Thank you for reading  ~Anthony

Deep Winter Cold and Snow threats Roll on

An energetic disturbance from central Canada rotating around James Bay upper level low will dive into the northern US and form a strong broad low pressure center over the Great Lakes early Saturday morning. A strong cold front trailing from low pressure will bring with it periods of light snow and snow squalls into Southern New England midday to late afternoon and evening from west to east during Saturday. Behind the front is a renewal of arctic air along with gusty northwest winds. Ahead of the front a south/southwest flow will develop and bring potential for wind gusts over 30 mph to perhaps as high as 45 mph for east and southeast shores. This will temporarily bring some *milder* air into extreme southeast SNE and would mean a mix of rain and perhaps wet flakes at the tail end late Saturday. 

 There are good signals that many areas in SNE could pick up a coating to 1" of snow from these snow showers/squalls with the potential of 1-4" over northwest Mass, the Berkshires and northwest CT. Not a huge amount of snow but will become a bit hazardous for travelers caught out in it in combination with the wind. This will create low visibility at times. Keep this in mind if you have traveling plans Saturday. Temperatures are certainly looking a bit milder during the day Saturday than it has been in recent days with highs in the upper 20's to low 30's but crashing quickly with the projected frontal passage approaching.  Weak high pressure builds in Sunday with the cold front offshore and high temperatures back into the teens for many ! Winds will still be a bit gusty on Sunday but this time from the west in the wake of the frontage passage. Wind chills will be below zero for much of the region. Yet another disturbance will dive southeast out of central Canada early Sunday rounding the upper level low that will shift close to Hudson Bay at that time. This disturbance has a shot to bring some more snow showers and gusty winds into the region very late Sunday into Monday morning, but confidence a bit lower with this shortwave feature. Beyond this, the deep arctic winter cold chugs on with temperatures remaining well below normal and we make make a run at some record cold as well mid to late next week. There will be the potential to watch for a close brush with a large ocean storm late Tuesday into Wednesday but at this time I feel as though this is a near miss. The upper level pattern seems to not dig enough and go negative in time to take building southeast moisture up the coast, therefore appears to take the bulk out to sea. Its certainly is something keep an eye on at least though.   ~Anthony 

Below is a snow map for Saturday. Click on the image for a larger view