January Ends On A Quiet Note. February Starts Active

   January has come to an end with monthly temperatures averaging near or slightly below normal for much of Southern New England while many saw snowfall well above avg. Now its onto February, by far my favorite month to forecast in SNE and with signals of a very active pattern in the first week at least there are plenty opportunities to do such. February is know for some monster storms in this region (a few of which need no introduction) and actually 6 out of 10 of Boston’s top 10 snowfalls have occurred in the month of February and with the signals of an active pattern and a few snow chances for many in the near future, I think its safe to say that winter is far from over regardless of what that little rodent says on Sunday.
   The first system we are watching and quickly approaching is slated for Monday. Right now the energy for that is diving south/southeast from the Pacific Northwest towards Texas. It picks up some Gulf of Mexico moisture and heads off the northeast late tomorrow and early Monday. It’s a quick mover due to lack of blocking to our north but it packs a bit of a punch especially to our south once again.  Low Pressure forms over Mississippi/Alabama Late Sun eve, early Mon and cuts through the southern Appalachians before curving off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic northeast of the Outer banks of North Carolina Monday afternoon. This points to areas of Virginia to New Jersey in the meat of the precipitation through Monday afternoon, though SNE will be on the northern edge of this storm. With a 1028MB high off to the west pushing this and 1024MB high influence along the Ma & VT/NH borders, once again the precipitation favors areas to the south of the Mass Pike. Light snow should break out Monday morning along the south coast of SNE and slowly creep northeast to the Mass Pike by midday before coming to a halt and slipping off to the east by the evening. 

   As far as precip type goes, it is mostly snow as temperatures aloft support such but surface temps will be marginal for many so it does not appear to be a “fluff factor; event to which we have become quite accustomed to this year. It will be a wetter type snow and even a few raindrops mixing in for SE Mass. and Cape Cod & the Islands. As far as amounts go it looks like a general slushy coating-2” with a few locations seeing near or over 3” of snow favoring near the extreme south coast. Not much if any wind expected with this so impacts are minor with this event.

   We get a brief break in the action Tuesday , but then all eyes turn off to our southwest again with building Gulf of Mexico moisture being driven by a very energetic upper level disturbance which will steer all that moisture northeast towards SNE Late Tuesday night and Wednesday. A surface low will work up to the Ohio River Valley , begin to transfer its energy to a secondary low near the Delmarva Peninsula. With this secondary low offshore, it keeps SNE on the cold side of this storm for the most part and with anonymously cold ocean temperatures makes any wind flow off the ocean help retain cold to keep this mostly a snow storm and quite potentially a sizable one (over 6").  The air above will be marginal though, so periods of freezing rain also possible for some. There will be a mix line for a time and that should become much more clear hopefully by later Sunday as the main energy for that storm enters the West coast and more data gets fed into guidance. There is no doubt of the storm occurring though. Another storm looks likely next weekend too ! Busy Pattern. Thank you for reading  ~Anthony