A Few Forecast Thoughts

 Though we do have a couple weather ‘systems’ approaching before , my eyes continue to be fixed on the March 25-27th timeframe. I have shared a few images on twitter in recent days, but the fact is they are only one run of one operational model. Take note though that there have been signals of this in guidance for almost 5 days now ! Regardless if they have been strong signals (some very intense) or weak, the fact remains that it looks to be an upper level pattern that is prone to producing right into earl April and continued strong signals of anonymously cold air as well. That has not changed. And when you have cold in late winter and early Spring, some pretty dramatic occurrences can occur whether it be a severe weather outbreak or even a major winter storm.  There are many past events of such and some in New England need no introduction. Its just the nature of the pattern , temperature gradients across the CONUS during this time of year. It is more volatile than any other part of the calendar year. Always need to be on your toes this time of year even though most seasons the transition from Winter to Spring does goes fairly smooth.
  Its important to note that it is ok to share model images of potential and I would not do it out of just the fantasy of wanting a storm or because it is the most dramatic solution on the table. I am not lazy like that and have been observing (30yrs) and forecasting weather for quite some time and know better and have a great , deep respect of weather. When I see signals I mention potential whether it is 10 days out or a sneak attack in a much shorter timeframe. Aside from just many operation model runs and signals of such through global ensemble guidance signals for the 3/25-27 timeframe there have been signals of a potentially brief but importantly timed pattern change in the upper levels of our atmosphere. Two of importance. A building of a western US ridge with indication of a building positive PNA (Pacific/North American Pattern) . This in turn sends/keeps a deep trough over the eastern US. Yes this has occurred  recently and we have escaped potentials but when there are also signals of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at least trending towards a negative phase (downstream Greenland blocking) or potentially going slightly negative near the time frame it is certainly a potential to keep an eye on . It is a formula/combination that has not  occurred much this year despite the above normal snowfall for most.  In fact the last time such occurred was mid January . Could I be dead wrong? Of course I could and have been quite a few times this year but it will not stop me from moving forward.
  There really are no details set in stone being still a week or so out but feel it would be best to surely keep at least an eye on this due to the time of year and certain plans, some vital that many people and businesses make as we transition from Winter to Spring. Thank You for reading and stay tuned.    ~Anthony