Forecast Thoughts For Potential Major Nor'easter Tues-Weds 3/25-26

   Highs today were near 60° for portions of the area but all eyes continue to be on what now appears to be a significant early Spring Nor'easter for much of the region later on Tuesday into Wednesday morning with the brunt of the effects expected over the eastern sections of Southern New England.

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   OVERVIEW: Arctic air looks to settle in Sunday eve and especially Monday where we could see record low maximum temps and begin to set the stage for a decent snowstorm  and what looks to be the first significant one since Feb 18th I believe. Northern energy for the pending storm is now entering the Pacific Northwest and will dive SE towards the Southeastern US states and merge with a southern based sub-tropical jet and form a storm off the Carolina's early in the day on Tuesday as the upper levels of the atmosphere dig a deep amplified trough over the East Coast Tuesday eve sending a phased storm off to the north/northeast that will undergo meteorological bombgenesis in response to rich Atlantic Ocean moisture and a clash of above normal sea surface temperatures and below normal SST's along its track and an assist from the Gulf Stream. Low pressure will pass just outside the 40/70 benchmark early Wednesday somewhere around 970 millibars, perhaps even lower  before heading towards Nova Scotia late Wednesday.

   TIMING : Flurries and light snow could break out as early as Tuesday am as upper level energy over the Ohio River Valley starts to interact with building moisture off to the south as the main storm takes shape near or off the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Flurries, perhaps a period of light snow should continue through the daylight hours before intensity will pick up south to north through the evening hours with the peak of the storm occurring overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday before  it pulls off to the northeast.
   IMPACTS & EFFECTS: Very strong signals continue to indicate the most significant effects and impacts will be felt near coastal locations. The heaviest snow and strongest winds are likely near the coastal plain. Banding of heavy snow is likely for eastern SNE especially near and inside interstate 495 in eastern Massachusetts as this area will be closest to the storm center and in the area of greatest signaled vertical motion. Unlike previous storms where there had been a sharp cutoff due to incredibly dry air contrast to the north and northwest of the storm, this one will have decent mid level moisture at least at the get go to spread light accumulating snow to the entire region before the storm really blows up and pulls the heaviest snow and banding closer to the coast and especially over the Cape and Islands. It will be very hard to see thermal profiles rise to the point where any mix would be involved so this is a predominantly snow event. Winter Storm warning headlines are very possible and even a Blizzard Watch could be warranted near the eastern Shores. The other issue and it could be a BIG one is the potential for powerful sustained  winds, again affecting the coast the most. There are strong signals of potentially damaging wind gusts along the immediate shore to Cape Cod and the Islands as the storm continues to intensify passing by.  There is a big difference between a weakening storm system and an intensifying one  like this will be . Enough signals have been there that I feel  *High Wind Warnings* are likely near the shores with even  *Wind Advisories* possibly further inland. Images below show the sustained and gust potentials during the brunt of the storm overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Wave heights are expected to grow to 15-20 feet near or just off our coastlines. The Wednesday high tide cycle will have to be closely monitored for likely splash over and potential for moderate coastal flooding. This aspect is very dependent on exactly how close that low center comes. There is great agreement as of now but slight shifts are still likely.
   So now to answer the big question I am sure many of you are asking. How much snow?  Its still a bit early to tag numbers for certain locations, however,  I believe I will be able to estimate further by this time tomorrow. In the map below it shows the best probability of seeing and exceeding 6" of snow. Confidence is quite high here, and if it  all comes together, as it has the potential to do so, someone will come away with a foot, perhaps a bit more when all is said and done Wednesday ino mid-day over eastern SNE.

Thats the skinny on the system as I see it right now. I do not expect many drastic changes but do stay tuned to me on twitter and facebook if they should arise between now and then. The good news is we could hit 60° by Friday with a better chance Saturday and we may finally be able to put the snow behind us and move forward to enjoy 'Spring'. Thank you for reading     ~Anthony