SNE Snowstorm to Begin 2014

 Confidence high that snowstorm is on the way but not a blockbuster like it once had slight potential to be. The set up is driven by an energetic north branch disturbance swinging towards the northeast late Wednesday. The reason for the snow will not be the placement/track of low pressure that very often this time of year and in the winter months is so key but instead the presence of an arctic high to the north , very cold air in place and plenty of moisture in the mid to upper levels in the atmosphere. The clash of the two brings us our accumulating dry fluffy snows Thursday into at least midday Friday to Southern New England. Long duration. The image below should help to explain this showing a low much farther south and east than is typical  but an impressive "overrunning" situation with moisture into arctic. Its that process that brings the snow growth .

The good thing with this storm coming is that there is zero doubt this is a "snow" storm. Very cold temperatures will be in place at the start and hold , maybe even drop throughout the event. This is important for a few reasons, 1: The snow will add up as its falling, there will be no wasted precipitation. Snow ratio's appear to be near 20:1  perhaps more ! This is due to temperatures being only in the teens to 20's at best for many during the storm, perhaps colder. This creates a fluff factor. The bad thing to that is that with expected gusty winds at times especially neat the coast there will be blowing and drifting of snow at times. Even though it appears the snow will never really "puke", its a drawn out light to moderate perhaps heavy at times intensity to it. The blowing will create low visibility at times for motorist. Something to be aware off. This looks to be the case especially for eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands as that will be the area of strongest winds and still a fluffy snow.

The other issue with this storm and again especially eastern Mass. shorelines and the Cape and Islands is the potential for coastal flooding during the Friday Am high tide cycle. Winds look to be sustained out of the north/northeast between 30-perhaps as high as 40 mph for a time early Friday morning. Given this flooding could be moderate.  Again, this really does NOT hinge on the placement /intensity of storm, its likely to occur regardless. 

So how much, right? I am not going to go crazy with this but looks like a general 8-12" snowfall for the region with potential for a few places to see over a foot favoring areas of eastern Ma and RI as this area will be under the influence of a NNE (seen in wind graphic above) wind flow and with relatively mild water off the coast it acts to enhance snowfall in those areas as we have seen many times before. "Ocean Enhancement".

Here is my overall thinking. As always I urge you to look at the forecast range and not just fix to the high number. light snow starts Thursday morning. Heaviest period is late night into early Friday with light snow continuing to the east for much of Friday as well. In its wake we are left with frigid arctic air with temps below zero (some *well* below ) for much of the region both Friday and especially Saturday morning. The potential is there for another storm Sunday night and Monday. Still kinks to work out with that one. Thank you for taking the time to read the blog and Happy New Years !!  ~Anthony

Warm , Wet & Windy Weekend Ahead

Click on images for a larger view
After a cold and snowy mid  December, today in Southern New England found highs into the upper 40's and low 50's ! The "bump up" continues into Saturday as well as highs will be in the 50's for many to near 60°. The same holds true for most the region on Sunday as well. With Temperature fluctuations  like this there surely will be some weather impacts expected as well. A frontal boundary is draped across the lower Great Lakes this eve and into central and northern New England and a couple waves of low pressure are expected to ride along that frontal boundary through Monday am bringing with it showers, downpours, possible thunder, strong wind gusts and warmth to the south of the boundary and potential ice , wintry mix and snow well north of the boundary.

The heaviest precipitation through Monday is expected to occur along and north of the front. If it were plain rain there would not be any issues but as temperatures skyrocket in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere, surface temps will remain below freezing for many to the north of the front and that will bring a potential Ice storm to parts of northern New England Saturday night into Sunday especially but possibly not limited to central and eastern New Hampshire and much of Maine away from the immediate shores. South of the front surface temperatures will soar to about 20-25° above normal for this time of year with highs near or over 60° for much of SNE on Sunday. Dewpoints (measure of humidity) will be in the 50's too. It will feel almost muggy for the 1st *full* day of Winter on Sunday south of the front. The area to watch for potential *brief* icing would be extreme northern Middlesex County in eastern Ma as well as Essex County. I am not expecting any major concerns with the potential for ice but it does not take much . What is really insane is that temps near the MA/NH border will be in the 30's and near Taunton Ma and other areas in SNE it will be 30° milder! Such a short distance for such a gradient. These changes in the lower & upper levels as well as a screaming ridged Jet Stream into Canada will bring the potential for strong wind gusts into SNE late Saturday eve through Sunday on the order of 30-45 mph.  As low pressure works off to the west and north of SNE late Sunday , cold west northwest winds will start snap back in here late Monday and especially Tuesday. Monday is the transition day though with still many SNE readings in the 50's . Its from that point on though that an arctic blast of air starts to get ushered into our area with highs remaining in the upper 20's to low 30's on Tuesday. A very cold Christmas Eve is shaping up into Christmas Morning with many teens likely away from the southeast shores. As low pressure works off the Northeast coast early Weds, winds will turn north over the relatively mild waters of the Atlantic and we could even see some Ocean Effect flurries or snow showers on Christmas Eve Day over Cape Cod. For SNE High pressure will be overhead and the forecast for Christmas looks like clear skies, calm winds and cold in the 20's and 30's . Below are some modeled images for Sunday Afternoon

Alberta Clipper Approaching. Details & Whats Ahead...

Click All Images For A Larger View....Two days removed from the first significant winter storm of the 2013-2014 season and now we are watching yet another system approach us this eve as northern branch energy dives east/southeast from central Canada currently north of Lake Superior. This energy/weak broad low pressure continues approaching southern New England this eve spreading a swath of light snow along the way. It's the ingredients for what we call an "Alberta Clipper". These clippers have a history of being moisture starved and usually drop minor advisory snowfalls and for many that is exactly what this one will do. But wait, we are still left in the same Jet Stream pattern just a few days ago and enough tilt to the Jet Stream that once that energy/vorticity nears the eastern shores of New Jersey it will spawn a secondary, coastal low off south of Long Island and start to intensify as it passes just east of the southern New England coastlines Tuesday evening. It is the formation of that new low pressure system in combination will remaining arctic air to the north being drained into the storm. This is the set up that brings us our accumulating snow for Tuesday.

 If you are thinking that it seems like a while since we have seen one of these buggers, It has ! I don't have any specific dates but can tell you its been at least 2 yrs. Again, not a huge deal here but the timing could be rough for the evening commute as it is likely that moderate snow will be falling especially closer to Boston - Providence to the north /northeast into southeast New Hampshire. It is that area along with some favored higher elevations that could approach warning criteria snow of 6"/+ as this will be the area of greatest dynamics and lift being close to the center of a developing low pressure. In the image below the surface pressure trend /change shows falling pressure off the area of expected development during the mid to late morning hours.

 At that time we will start to see more organized bands of snow closer to the coastlines. The storm is all snow for all the area except south and east of the Cape Cod Canal and the Islands as they will be close to the developing low which in turn allows milder air to come in off the Atlantic a bit of mix/rain *could make it as far north as Plymouth, Ma. Areas west of RT 24 in eastern Ma will see a dry fluffy snow. It is important to note with the cold temperatures as of late that the snow will start to adhere to all surface immediately. This storm is another quick mover with once again a lack of upstream blocking near Greenland (-NAO) , so may catch a few by surprise during the late afternoon, early evening hours as it progress off to the ENE. The concern is that the strongest part of the event commute during the Pm/evening commute. There are signals from guidance of steep mid level lapse rates (change in temperature of height) these values tend to lead to heavy convective-like precipitation and banding and yes even the potential for a rumble of thunder ! Something to monitor while now-casting early tomorrow and something to keep in mind if venturing out that you could get caught in a low visibility situation in heavy snowfall especially from Providence to Boston to southeast New Hampshire . The light snow starts to spread in here during the mid morning hours first in SW Connecticut and then will advance to the NNE thereafter reaching the eastern shores by 11am give/take.

 The other thing to watch for is some gusty winds to develop over Cape Cod & the Islands. Gusts 25-35 mph are possible into Wednesday morning. Its a cold day ! Highs only in the Teens for some , 20's for most and 30's over extreme southeast MA , the Cape & Islands. Wednesday we are left with some lingering morning clouds east before sunshine develops and we approach 30° for highs as a SNE average. The Warming trend will continue throughout the week with lots of clouds around after Thursday into the weekend , but mild ! Highs will be near/into the 50's possibly on Friday with windy conditions at times and showers developing late. 

It appears as though the big trough driven by the Canadian Polar Vortex  will work offshore towards Thursday allowing for an eastern ridge to build and bring the mild, showery conditions right into the weekend as well. Fear not though snowlovers...We need this to reshuffle things in the atmosphere and already there are indications the cold comes back in time for Santa and perhaps a storm system to watch as well. Thank you for taking the time to read the blog, I appreciate it.           ~Anthony        Oh..Winter begins Saturday ! Yup, has not even started yet. 

Coastal Storm/Nor'easter On The Way

Its not quite "Winter" just yet but try telling that to Mother Nature. The active early to mid December pattern will roll on. It looked much different with the first few days of December  in Southern New England  averaging above normal temperatures but since we have been going nowhere but downhill and looks to be no prolonged end in sight to the cold. The change in the pattern started in its early stages towards late November and is continuing to date. It has been an impressive cold and snowy start to the season across much of the United States with relentless arctic air in the west and a nation that is now left with the highest percentage of snowcover to date going back to at least 2003.

So, this gives us an idea of where we have been and where we stand now. Now we look to the future. More snow is heading into SNE this weekend and will be the biggest, most widespread snowstorm thus far this December.
This storm will come with snow, heavy at times, some mixing near the shores and also some rain over far southeast SNE. The heaviest axis of most snow  like many set ups like this occurs just to the north/northwest of the big cities as colder temperatures will bring in the "fluff factor" there even though less moisture may be in the cards for them as opposed to locations nearer to the coast. The coast will see a wetter type snow and possible mixing at times. A situation seen many times before and the snow map will echo that likelihood. In the below image of a snapshot of the current Water Vapor, you can see the ingredients coming together now for the storm ahead. First the northern energy now diving into the northwest US from Canada and building moisture over Texas which will soon tap the Gulf Of Mexico. These two meet up over SNE on Saturday  , clash with large arctic high pressure to the north to bring us our winter storm/ Nor'easter. The included model image shows the idea of how it comes together as well.

Its still a tad too early to really get into specifics as far as timing and such but light snow looks to break out for most as early as 10am Saturday morning and will spread and intensify thereafter from SSW-NNE. The brunt of the storm comes Saturday evening into the first part of Sunday morning before tapering precipitation towards Sunday afternoon. Along with the Snow, mix and even rain for some mixing near the shores will come winds, especially but not confined to the eastern shorelines of SNE. Sustained ENE winds will develop between 20-30 mph for favored locations which the model image below gives a general idea. Wind *gusts* across much of SNE will be on the order of 30-40 mph for some and perhaps briefly approach 50mph for the Cape & Islands as the storm intensifies Sunday am off the coast heading into the Gulf Of Maine. 

Waves 7-10' will develop just offshore of east and southeast facing shorelines and in combination with the expected winds may cause some splash over and minor coastal flooding  at the times of high tide Sunday morning. So to wrap up , when all said and done the largest most impactful winter storm of the season is on the way and here is the expected snowfall map through early Sunday afternoon.

 As far as where we are headed beyond this weekend I feel our active/COLD pattern will continue into at least next week. I am monitoring the potential for more snowfall early to mid next week along with possible record cold temperatures especially early in the week. Then Winter starts officially. Enjoy. ~Anthony 

Quick Note: A few more finer details may arise and minor changes. Stay tuned to twitter and my SNE FB Fanpage for any further developments. Thank you for taking the time to read the blog. 

Wrong time for Much Needed Moisture. Detailed Storm Blog

Well, we need rain in a bad way but unfortunately Mother Nature has decided to dispense it and a lot of it on arguably the busiest travel days of the year in the United States. Add to that the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts and we have a recipe for a potential traveling disaster.

The Arctic Front passage late Saturday and Sunday will be a distant memory by Wednesday morning as many in Southern New England will spike to or exceed 60°  as a strong broad low pressure system to our south/southwest takes hold and intensifies with a very active south/southeast wind ahead of it right into our area. Enough cold air will be stubborn and in place at the onset late Tuesday that some wintry precipitation could fall across far western SNE before all levels of the atmosphere warm as the storm approaches closer to our area.
 High clouds ahead of approaching coastal low are already on the increase and will continue to increase and lower through the daytime hours on Tuesday. We may actually see some wintry precipitation (light) break out in scattered form for central and especially western SNE early on Tuesday before we warm all levels. Just be aware of this and also be aware that it is very likely to not last long. The main batch of precipitation will start to enter south coastal Southern New England most likely after 5pm, advancing from southwest to north/northeast as the day progresses and reaching the eastern SNE shorelines by approximately 7-8pm . A few sleet pellets cant be ruled out briefly but will quickly transition to plain rain. A wind driven heavy rain event will commence over all of SNE Tuesday eve and last right into  mid afternoon Wednesday. Though I am not a member of  the “TSA”, I can certainly see some flight delays or even cancellations, so do be prepared and have some patience if you are traveling out of one of the East Coast hubs. Overnight Wednesday into the wee hours of Thursday morning as low pressure moves off to the north of our area cold air on the back side will snap back into SNE and could bring an end to the precipitation with a few flakes flying around. Very dynamic storm with northern energy, southern Gulf of Mexico moisture and rich Atlantic tropical moisture.  This is not your typical “coastal storm”, though to many folks its effects will seem much like that of a Nor'easter, the fact is the winds will never go to the northeast until the low reaches the US/Canada border. Another aspect that prevents this system from being a Nor'easter is the lack of a present cold high pressure system to the north of SNE. Nor'easters thrive off  Low pressure development moving into cold high pressures to the north and the tight pressure gradient created by it and a low pressure working into it, and that simply is not there this go around.  In fact , this storm system will be working off pressure gradient as well but from a west to east perspective, not south to north. This also means the that system is rather progressive with nothing to hold it at bay. All the flow from all directions around the periphery of low pressure takes this thing quickly up the coast and off into southeast Canada before it “bombs out" into a very formidable storm .
Below is the expected rainfall through the entire event from Tuesday pm -late Wednesday. It appears as though with all guidance in agreement that most of SNE is in for a widespread 2-4” of rain. This would be the single most in a storm since June ! Again, much need at the worst time. Funny how Mother Nature sticks it to us at times. The precipitation shield will move from SSW-NNE and with that trajectory its relentless rains over the same areas. Training of heavy downpours are likely and we surely could see street flooding along with big puddles. It would be a good idea to clear storm drains of leaves and waste while you can early on Tuesday. Also try to get up on the roof and get those leaves out of those gutters! It will help, trust me. We will be on the eastern side of the storm so there will be a rich Atlantic moisture feed/transport along with some nasty churning winds at mid and high levels which will be transported to the surface in heavy downpours and thunderstorms….Yes, thunderstorms! Only 48 hours removed from arctic air. Welcome to November in Southern New England. So below is my thinking on rainfall expectations. There certainly could be isolated higher amounts but just too difficult at this time to pinpoint exactly where they line up.

Wind will be the other issue and on the increase again after seeing damaging winds Sunday as early as Tuesday eve with sustained winds of 20-30 mph creeping in from south to north. Sustained winds will increase to 20-40 mph east of Worcester , Ma up and down SNE. Widespread wind gusts will go to 40-50 mph with max gust of  60-65 mph over southeast MA early to mid day Wednesday. Winds of this magnitude are certainly capable for damage to power line and tree’s and loose property objects.

 Coastal flooding not a huge deal as this is not a Nor’easter but there could be minor splash over near the shores. Waves *will* be impressive though, especially southeast facing shores. Possibly as high as 10-15’ with some offshore SNE swell reaching 18’ ! The storm is out of here by Thanksgiving though leaving cold in its wake with high temperature back into in the upper 20’s and 30’s for highs with a gusty NW wind. 

The Pattern Ahead And Some Winter Thoughts

Overall it has been a very quiet Autumn thus far in Southern New England, temperatures have been up and down just like we are accustomed to this time of year. Many locations saw their first flakes and also their first minor snowfall accumulation and it came right around the average date that it should do so. We have seen some strong cold front passages this season , but they have come with little fanfare in the precipitation department. So, as we now are just past mid month November, where do we stand compared to the mean average of years past in both temps and precip?..The graph below shows the numbers of each. (Click all images to enlarge and please do not redistribute)

So now the big question, how does it look moving forward as we head towards late Autumn and approach the beginning of Winter? I am seeing signals of a pattern change starting as early as mid to late week upcoming. The pattern as of late has been a northern branch dominant one, again not uncommon for this time of year. As we approach December those northern storm tracks tend to shift further south leading to increasing opportunities for the northern energenic branch to phase with the moist southern branch of the jetstream leading to the increase in storm development over the south and south central United States. Step one is to first get a pattern that becomes conducive for storm development in locations that typically are the breeding grounds for storms to then approach the East Coast then either make the ride all the way up to the US /Canada border or depart the coastlines father south at some point. Its that time of year where we need to start watching for these potentials.

In recent years those that are "snowlovers" have almost come to expect a snowstorm in November and even October. Not the case this year, at least so far. Changes start next week and energenic disturbances to the north will start to descend further to the southern United States allowing for a more amplified pattern to take shape. There currently are no strong signals that this leads to any type of storm just yet but surely is an indication of a pattern becoming more conducive for development. That is apparent in the graphic below which shows the 500mb Ensemble  Mean 

 and "spaghetti plots"  as we approach mid to late next week. Showing amplified trough and northern (blue) and southern(red) streams getting closer to interaction.

Again, none of this indicates a set in stone storm or that one will develop, but they can and should start to as early as the upcoming weekend. One other graphic to show you is the favorable teleconnections starting to point in that direction as well. 1st is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)..Which represents Upstream Greenland Blocking in a negative phase. Also conducive for storm development hovering around Neutral. Next is the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA) which in a positive or trending positive phase develops a ridge across the western US which tends to lead to a trough over the east. Lastly is the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which is just as the name suggests , provides arctic air and a negative or trending negative phase usually does the trick. So, nothing set in stone yet, but its the conduciveness that has me keeping an eye on model as we approach December. 

All signals I have gone over and all that I continue to see as the days pass continue to point to a "traditional" winter over the Northeast. This means the snowiest periods should occur in December, especially mid to late month into 1st half of January . Appears a very cold February is in the cards along with a major storm threat early to mid month. Normal snowfall and temperatures should be the rule through March into April. As of now I feel near normal to slightly above normal snowfall is in the cards for the Northeast this winter season. Thank you for reading !   ~Anthony 

Strong Cold Front Approaching...It's effects.

   Its been a long time since I have composed a blog and apologize for that. It is very tough during my work season to do such though will most definitely have more time moving forward and once again look forward to that, so lets get into it...
   I provided much talk about the *potential* of an East Coast storm in the works for the middle to latter half of next week. Its nothing more than I offer at any other potential that arrises. I had offered up two different scenarios at which potentially things could iron out and would issue a forecast the moment I felt one had validity over the other. That day came yesterday.

   All signals in recent days have been pointing to the arrival of an anomalously strong 1040mb Arctic High diving south and east from central Canada. This will push a storm off to the north of SNE with a strong trailing cold front approaching Monday. That 1040 high will be positioned off to our west and building during that time. A High Pressure system of that magnitude and strength will now be enough to squash or suppress the southern jet to allow for any moisture that would try to ride up the East Coast and phase with the northern energetic jet to phase well offshore of Southern New England to bring minimal to zero effect from that. That is not to say that this upper level pattern and setup will leave us uneventful.  As we approach Monday night into Tuesday as that huge High builds behind the cold front, the air will be so cold that a line of snow showers and squalls will break out *behind* the cold front along with gusty winds on the order of 25-35 mph. Travel for some across the Northeast will become a bit rough late Monday as squalls will reduce visibility at times. The potential is there for dustings to coatings and even a couple inches for areas hit the hardest. These squalls are often like thunderstorms and very hard to predict timing, location and intensity so watching radar and nowcasting becomes a necessity into Monday eve. Below is a graphic showing the setup and my thoughts as to the areas that may be impacted the greatest. 

One aspect of the forecast that has remained is the surge of cold air that will come down on the eastern side of High Pressure. Temperatures will continue to fall progressively until they bottom out Wednesday am. Many locations east of The Rockies will see their temperatures fall to 10-25° below their average for this time of year and the coldest 2nd week of November since 2003 for some in Southern New England. Get some fresh wood cut ready to throw in that fireplace and get ready for spiked heating bills. The good news is the pattern is fairly quick to swing right back towards moderating warmth as a trough begins to build out west with a ridge developing into the eastern US.

   In other news many in New England saw their first accumulating snows of the season this week, surely nothing to write home about for some but for others that 1st snow is just the time to write home......Always exciting ! My thoughts and prayers continue to be with the Philippines as they were devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan, one of the worst cyclones to ever make landfall anywhere across the globe in history.   ~Anthony

New Blog: (830p Weds) Brushing off in time for more snow !

CLICK ON ALL GRAPHICS FOR A LARGER VIEW
Many folks are just finishing  brushing off from yet another late Winter 2013 major snowstorm for Southern New England. The late surge of winter continues now as we have officially welcomed in "Spring" now.  Upstream strong Greenland Blocking (-NAO) has really had a hold on us since early to mid February and shows no immediate signs of losing its grip on our area which means more below normal temperatures and a stormy/active storm track right into early April. There are now subtle signs that Spring may spring after the first week of April, but can say that that is not a given just yet. With our latest snowstorm , impressive numbers keep rolling in and records continue to fall. Worcester has been and continues to be the snowiest city in the Untied States this season (^ population of 100,000). Many locations now have set records for the Snowiest February and March combination ON RECORD  and some dating back to the 1915-16 season.  It really has been a very impressive Winter considering there were many folks ready to put this one in the bag ! The snow is just one aspect that will make this season now memorable, the other is the relentless battering and reshaping of our beloved Southern New England shorelines. 

<<<GRAPHICAL MODELED SURFACE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE

So, here we go again, our next system comes in Thursday afternoon and overnight. This is not a direct hit from a coastal storm rather another potential Inverted Trough or convergence zone setting up between a vigorous Upper Level Low Pressure system off to our northwest  and another surface low well to our south and east. This will focus an area of snowfall to break out near the East Coast of Southern New England anytime after 11am though probably more likely towards 2-3pm and continue through the evening hours and possibly linger right into Friday morning especially for the outer Cape and Nantucket . All levels support snow, fluffier to the west and a bit wetter to the east. There lies a compromise where heaviest precipitation looks SE, with a bit less west though a drier snow. Dewpoints will be marginal on the outer Cape though temps aloft will be plenty cold enough. Not many if other impacts are expected with this storm other than the timing again may be rough with the evening commute, especially east of Interstate 95 , Route 3 in eastern Massachusetts and Route 6 along Cape Cod. So all in all a low impact event but yet another shot at a potential plowable March snowfall in the Winter now that seems to never end.

<<<EXPECTED SNOWFALL (REMEMBER TO USE AMOUNTS RANGE.. LOW #'S  LIKELY, HIGH POSSIBLE)
This may not be the last of it, and If I were a betting man, it is not the last of it. The presence of a remarkably Strong Greenland Block much like December and January of 2010-11 and 1995-96 will continue and the 500mb pattern will continue to remain conducive for coastal development. There is also a potential bigger storm in the works for Monday and Tuesday which looks like a potential carbon copy to the one that just passed. Stay tune for more on that. Thank you for reading and hang in there Spring lovers, this is the price we pay for that amazingly gorgeous early Spring last year which featured many in the 70's and low 80's at this time. Certainly not the case this yr.   ~ANTHONY 

*New Blog* Another Winter Storm Threatens Next Week

Fairly quiet but seasonal cool weekend ahead for many this Saint Patrick's day Holiday weekend. There could be a few renegade snow showers from time to time especially Saturday though High pressure is expected to crest over the region Sunday and Monday keeping us dry and tranquil. The next weather system we are watching is for Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Timing is a bit suspect at this time as it may come in a bit early than that, possibly Monday night. As of now Low pressure forms off The New Jersey coast very late Monday into Tuesday morning and looks to take a track right over eastern Southern New England and perhaps right through the Cape Cod Canal area. There is still plenty of time as we are 4+ days out from event and a lot can shift. I do not expect any major shifts but slight ones will make a BIG difference this time of year as we are moving towards the end of winter officially. A track this close would mean perhaps brief snow burst for may to mix and to rain for the bigger cites and along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor. Where the colder air at the surface and aloft remain colder , wintry mix and snow will persist longer in those locations which look to be north of the Massachusetts Turnpike and the higher elevations.  The potential is there for those that do remain all snow  for a Warning type snowfall over 6". Again, much time to iron out and watch trends in the forecast and guidance as  the mix line can and likely will  wobble either south or north. Either way a period of strong wind gust are possible for a brief time into Tuesday on the order of 30-45 mph favoring locations near the coast and especially Cape Cod and The Islands. Again, nothing set in stone expect the storm now looks likely and likeliest locations to receive measurable snow are now (but not limited to) north of the Mass Pike and especially higher elevations with potential for further adjustments north or south in time. I will be watching when I have the time to this weekend. For now I am packing and heading off to Lincoln New Hampshire Saturday and Sunday for a Zip Lining adventure with my Brother and Nephew.  First Time ! Hope you all have a happy and SAFE Holiday weekend   ~ Anthony 

*New Blog* Rain & Wind Imminent...Whats next ?

Click on All Images for full size views

High Cirrus clouds can be seen this eve increasing to the south and southwest of Southern New England in advance of our next weather system. Monday was another spectacular day with many in 40’s and 50’s and more of that high March sun angle doing its thing melting a good deal of snow once again. Sun setting later helps with everyone’s past Winter Blue’s though lets not forget Winter does not end officially until March 20th. Upstream Greenland Block again re-establishes itself after the passage of this next system and brings at least 2 more opportunities of wintry precipitation before March’s end. Signals that one of these events could be significant.

 Next storm is a cold front stemming from an Upper level Low passage well off to our north and west. Moisture increases starting this eve with high cirrus clouds and begins to lower through the night ahead of a southerly flow ahead of front passage. We cant  rule our some drizzle or a light shower overnight Monday into early Tuesday am during this moistening process, though the air is fairly dry so does not look like much of a big deal at all. More clouds lower into Tuesday am and more and more scattered showers will begin to form and move in from the south and southwest.  It appears as though the heaviest moisture associated just along and or ahead of the actual front passage comes into western Southern New England zones after 10am Tuesday. This seems a bit ahead of “schedule” to previous thinking. Slowly showers and heavier downpours will increase and continue the track to the east towards and reaching the eastern areas by the evening commute. That timing does not look good for folks commuting near metro Boston and in fact for all commuting up and down the interstate 95 corridor . In addition to the heavy downpour potential will be a period of  gusty winds increasing as early as Tuesday mid morning on the order of 30mph for many and increasing to near 40-45mph as the day goes on especially south and east of The Massachusetts Turnpike. Also to note that a rumble or two of thunder is not out the question. 

 Overall it looks like the consensus of guidance at this time is indicating ½”-1.00” of rainfall looks likely. Perhaps a few isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours possible. For this reason and in combination of still a deep snow pack (for some) despite recent melting has prompted the issuance of a *Flood Watch*. The watch is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning and any flooding is expected to be minor and confined to small streams. Those in prone areas should watch for potential warnings which means flooding is either happening or imminent. Hopefully the latter. 

After that storm passes it appears as though strong upstream Greenland Blocking (-NAO) will once again take shape and cooler weather ensues. There are also a couple systems of note to keep and eye on as the 500mb pattern again becomes conducive for coastal East Coast development. All will be monitored and further info will be issued as it becomes available    ~Anthony 

Another Winter Storm Bears Down on SNE

March did not roar in like a lion as it could have though indications that winter was going nowhere still hold true and now we have a potential major storm on our hands. The lack of confidence with this one is simply due to one on our more reliable models is not indicating as big as a snow threat and a low pass a bit farther to the south than the rest on the pack. The pattern has slowed enough for release of previous blocked storm and high hold to the north and now indicates a trip further north towards our area, and a slow trip at that and then a stall a bit further east than normal, though this should be a large storm .

WHAT IS LIKELY: Regardless of the slight model spread a few things look certain.

1. There will be a storm forming off the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday late afternoon and will grow into a very large storm system in size.
2. This is likely to be a prolonged event lasting Late Wednesday evening through the day Friday possibly. This prolonged period is due to a massive Greenland Block in place and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that will trap the storm from moving progressively.
3. Regardless if the storm takes a track a bit farther off to the south as one on our usually reliable computer models indicate, there will likely be an extended period of strong winds and perhaps damaging wind gusts near but not confined to coastal areas. Wind gusts will increase as early as Wednesday morning gusting to near 30 mph and only increasing thereafter eventually gusts will approach 50-55mph. This wind event will also be prolonged and caries with it the potential for some significant beach erosion.
4. Waves offshore will build 15-20 feet and that constant battering and push of water from the Atlantic Ocean is also likely to produce moderate to perhaps major coastal flooding for east and northeast facing shores during potentially 3 high tide cycles !
5. The storm will once again be loaded with Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Moisture, so a lot of liquid precipitation is expected with this storm
6. Those that stay all snow will have the potential for 1-2 Feet if the storm lives to its potential as is possible
7. There is likely to be mixing to work up near interstate 495 for a time and even plain rain for a time up to Mass pike and especially for Cape Cod and the Islands for much of the duration.

WHAT IS STILL BEING IRONED OUT:  Although we are now fairly close to the start on the event, it is kind of a breaking weather news story as I personally thought blocking would simply just be too strong and the storm would suppress mostly to south in the end. One model still suggest that to some degree, but has also started to trend to the north itself and so the alarm bell sounds !

1. Snowfall amounts for any given location throughout Southern New England at this time  are very difficult to pin down both in location and numbers. I do think most our area does see a plow able snow fall out of this when all said and done, except perhaps from the Cape Cod Canal points east and perhaps southeast Connecticut and Rhode Island. The highest potential exists from near Worcester MA into southeast New Hampshire where certainly either side on a foot on snow could fall. This will be a heavy wet snow for many and combined with the wind, power outages look to be a potentially BIG issue.
2. Where does the mix line setup if it does indeed?. Always tough to pin down or even verify when a model sends us guidance to its location. Looks like it could end up from a line from southwest Connecticut up through the Hartford Area to Providence to Boston as usually is the scenario most the times in this type of set up, though not a given.
3. Will mixing cut back on potential snow totals....As always it does though there is a ton of liquid to go around with this storm and precipitation .  A stronger storm can generate its own cold depending on the track. Its this Mix line and the intensity that will have to be further pinned down before a map is officially issued by myself. This all comes back to how close the Low center is to our area in the end . I hope that is as early as Mid-morning Tuesday .

So there is a brief rundown as to where we stand now. Coastal residents should start their routine coastal storm preparations and those farther Inland should start to prepare for possibly losing power anytime between Wednesday night and Late Friday time period. I will not leave you high and dry without an idea on how much snow may fall.. If less mixing, some could see a bit more, if more mixing some less..especially the immediate coast. (be sure to click on all images for full size views)

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for further updates   ~Anthony

<<<Wind Gust snapshot valid Thursday am

<<<<Potential Mix line

A look at the strong upstream blocking over the Northern Atlantic

*NEW BLOG* Another Storm (Snow for some) On The Way

A major blizzard that just hit parts on the Texas Panhandle into parts on Oklahoma and Kansas is now tracking to the north/northeast as a strong “Cutoff” Low Pressure and is caught in a trapped 500mb pattern with strong upstream blocking near Greenland.

The storm is massive but not your typical coastal low or Nor’easter. Its center will sprawl out on its approach towards Southern New England this evening and through the day Wednesday as the low center will wobble and drift to our west through Thursday and possibly even into Friday keeping it unsettled, cold aloft and scattered mixed precipitation possible through the period and even into the weekend.
The main precipitation shield is now located still off to our south and southwest From Buffalo NY to southern New jersey and will continue to make its way towards our area this evening. Precipitation is expected to break out around midnight (give or take an hour or two) from the southwest to northeast. The air is initially cold enough aloft (850mb approx. 5,000 ft up) for all to support snow and mixed precipitation for many. This is the case also for those (which is many) that still have mild surface temperatures as dewpoints are lower in the 20’s to lower 30’s. The precipitation that starts to fall will lower the temperatures initially due to the lower dewpoints. This process is called evaporational cooling. The milder air aloft will begin to warm from south to north soon thereafter, though will take longer for the higher elevations and further to the north and west where our heavier snowfall amounts are expected with this storm. CLICK ON ALL GRAPHICS FOR LARGER VIEWS

Elsewhere after a brief burst on snow that could coat the ground for folks near the coast, this will turn into a windswept rainstorm with once again plentiful moisture and the potential for 1-2” on liquid with this one which looks to put many well above average for the month on February. The main batch of precipitation with this storm should start to decay after late Wednesday afternoon, though the Low pressure that is expected to stay to our west throughout that duration of the meat of the storm will start to drift towards the coast and with it bring back colder air aloft and could switch all to light snow and or snow showers that could be on and off throughout Thursday and even right into early Saturday, MUCH like our last storm. Some additional accumulations are possible with that as it could form yet another weak inverted trough or axis on heavy snowfall for some. That potential area is being monitored and hopefully can be pinned down in the next day or two. The other issue will be increasing wind gusts. The wind will increase near midnight with gusts near 30mph approaching the South Coasts and move northeast and increase to where many will see 35-45mph throughout the region Wednesday. Most of these gusts will be from the southwest initially then shift to the east and slight northeast. This adds issues to those that will see more snow as it is expected to be a very wet snow and certainly can’t count out some power outages near and especially outside of Worcester Massachusetts .

With that persistent gusty east wind, its the reason areas near coastal locations warm at all levels that this is predominantly a rain and wind storm. Any little accumulation that may occur in these locations will be washed away. High tide mid-day Wednesday may bring a storm surge on 1-2 feet to east coastal facing shores and possible minor flooding and erosion. Stay tuned for further updates as needed. Though not many expected as confidence right now is quite high on the solution just printed out. Thank you for reading ! ~ Anthony
For a mapped image and further details on all Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Hazardous Weather Outlooks for our area, CLICK ON THE LINK BELOW
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/

UPDATED Blog : Storm Details...Winter Continues !

  For a third straight weekend a potential major Winter Storm will affect Southern New England. There remains no doubt that a storm will bring wintry precipitation to our area late Saturday through the day on Sunday. Storm details as of now are a bit sketchy though this thing will have plenty of moisture to work with feeding off upper level low energy over the northeastern Great Lakes and moisture sources from the Gulf of Mexico combined with Atlantic moisture being thrown into the primary storm that forms off The Mid-Atlantic late Saturday.

CLICK ON ALL IMAGES FOR FULL SIZE VIEWS
The Players: The piece of energy we are watching now is bringing wild weather to the midsection of the United States today and will move off  to the northeast as an Upper Level Low over the Great lakes. During that process sometime Saturday the energy and lagging moisture from that will form a primary low pressure somewhere between Cape Hatteras North Carolina and Southern New Jersey. THAT placement on where in the end that primary Low pressure forms is extremely important to this forecast. Either way the storm will travel to the NNE, then take a jog east in response to upstream blocking and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. It will likely slow down a bit on its approach to southern New England and pass near our 40/70 benchmark and then make a pass close or southeast of Nantucket as a 998-990mb low. That is much weaker on a storm than the past 2 so damage hopefully will not be as bad . One thing with this storm as it has rich Gulf of Mexico and especially Atlantic moisture feeding into it, there will be a shot of warm air advection ahead and mixing issues and possibly lots of rain will be present near the coastlines, with potential for snow on front end and back end. That is how it looks just at this point. It is important though to remember as always that slight shifts will and could make a huge difference in both amounts on precipitation and precipitation for any given location geographically throughout Southern New England. Between a spread of operational and ensemble weather models , anywhere from ¾” - 2” of accumulated liquid precipitation can be expected at this time. Along with the precipitation, there will be the potential for a few strong wind gusts especially near the coast of eastern and southeastern areas.The heavy rainfall and especially areas with a deep snowpack still over coastal areas may bring some poor drainage flooding.A minor storm surge is also possible. Wave heights build to 10-20 feet off our coastlines.
How it should play out: Moisture levels in the upper atmosphere start to increase Saturday and especially Saturday afternoon ahead of our pending Winter Storm. We are likely to start to see mixed precipitation break out along the South coast and perhaps a plain rain there Saturday evening. That mix line could make it all the way up to the Mass Pike by late evening. From that point on it will begin to crash back towards the coastlines bringing a flip back to snow for many except extreme southeast Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands.

All the meanwhile a heavy wet pasting snow is likely along and north of The Mass pike into Sunday morning with the heaviest shifting towards the east and northeast areas as low pressure moves off to the east and northeast on our area and a northeast wind will bring some enhancement to eastern , north eastern Mass and into the seacoast of New Hampshire. That area could be the “PivotPoint” zone where the snow hangs on a bit longer with NE fetch and blocking doing it think so to speak.
Winds not a huge problem though sustained winds will increase on the order on 15-20 miles per hour for central and eastern southern New England starting Late Saturday eve and likely sustained to near 25-35mph over Cape Cod and The Islands. Those winds continue right through at least the first half of Sunday before working offshore. Wind gust from late Saturday through Sunday will be on the order of 30-40mph favoring south and east of The Mass Pike and possibly as high as 50mph for Cape Cod and The Islands. While we have seen worse in recent storms it is certainly capable in combination on heavy wet snow expected and even heavy rainfall to saturate the ground/tree structure that some power outages are likely. With all this said, the coast looks to have mixing and or rain issues so accumulations held down low near these areas. Heaviest snowfall at this point is along and especially north of The Mass Pike into southeast New Hampshire where either side of a foot of snow could fall.

This is an initial snow map and further shifts remain possible and even perhaps likely with this storm. Also important to always look at the forecast range amounts .(my motto is low numbers likely-high ,possible). Precipitation ends later on Sunday and winds slacken and we are given a brief break on Monday and much of Tuesday before another potential Winter Storm almost similar to this one. That has potential for stronger winds and also a mix line.
Why all the storms as of late you may ask?. Well, the 500mb pattern has been conducive for development over the past 3 weeks or so and will continue to be right into March and beyond perhaps. Combine that with teleconnections all lined up for potential winter storminess. The AO is providing the occasional cold blasts with the PNA ridging out to the west in a positive phase occasional sending troughs across to the eastern U.S. and most importantly a negative NAO providing a Greenland Block and room for anything that touches the east coast to keep our area on our toes. Beyond mid week next, a cutoff low may form near or off our coast and could deliver multiple surges off moisture off the Atlantic for a couple to perhaps a few days and bring more precipitation and in the form of accumulating snow for many. Stay tuned and thanks for reading   ~Anthony

More Snow, Wind & Cold on the way... #Winter

Upper level energy and cold pool aloft over the northeastern Great Lakes will create deepening trough and low pressure to form off  The Mid-Atlantic Saturday afternoon. The Low Pressure Center is then forecast to intensify rapidly as its heads of to the northeast and is likely to make a pass east of the 40/70 Benchmark early on Sunday and head into The Gulf Of Maine as another likely sub 970mb low in a recent string of them.
  Many locations today in the 40’s to near 50° today and some may find it hard to see this occurring. Truth is the temperatures are the least of the forecasting concerns as VERY cold air aloft is accompanied by energy and dynamics aloft from the west-northwest and this will result in a dynamic cooling process bringing snow as the predominant precipitation type for many except perhaps brief mixing south and east for a time ,though feel even there in time it will be mostly snow falling.  Snow showers and a period of Light snow looks to break out as early as the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. This could bring minor snowfall totals before and during the morning commute on the order of a coating to 2" to perhaps an isolated 3”. This precipitation shield moves from southwest to northeast and brings a lull in the action for at least a few hours before that primary low pressure development occurs well east of  The Delmarva Peninsula Saturday late afternoon . 

CLICK ON ALL IMAGES FOR LARGER VIEW
In advance of that low pressure snow again looks to break out for many with the heaviest axis focused across central and eastern areas of Southern New England throughout the night and into at least most of Sunday morning dropping more accumulating snowfall before low pressure takes off with its moisture into the eastern Gulf of Maine. (important to ALWAYS look at forecast RANGE amounts they are there for a reason.. low-high number, or likely-possible).  Along with the snow potential is the potential for an extended period of gusty winds developing on Saturday and possibly lasting through Monday with occasional gusts on the order of 30-45 perhaps  50mph at times from the west/northwest and could cause a few more isolated power outages. Not what many want to hear again and also with an expected cold blast.  The other aspect of this and it pertains to the winds that will shift to the west, northwest is how biting cold it will get through the day Sunday with falling into the 20’s for many and with those guts, wind chill values may dip near 0° or even well below for many. The wind and very cold air and low wind chills lasts right into at least early Tuesday.

Beyond this system, maybe some overrunning precipitation on Tuesday and perhaps icing for some. Beyond that, blocking will remain with a predominant negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a 500mb pattern that favors an amplified eastern US trough. That combined with multiple surges of moisture coming out of the Gulf Of Mexico, it appears a very active mid to late winter pattern is likely to shape up.    ~Anthony