The Arctic Front passage late Saturday and Sunday will be a distant memory by Wednesday morning as many in Southern New England will spike to or exceed 60° as a strong broad low pressure system to our south/southwest takes hold and intensifies with a very active south/southeast wind ahead of it right into our area. Enough cold air will be stubborn and in place at the onset late Tuesday that some wintry precipitation could fall across far western SNE before all levels of the atmosphere warm as the storm approaches closer to our area.
High clouds ahead of approaching coastal low are already on the increase and will continue to increase and lower through the daytime hours on Tuesday. We may actually see some wintry precipitation (light) break out in scattered form for central and especially western SNE early on Tuesday before we warm all levels. Just be aware of this and also be aware that it is very likely to not last long. The main batch of precipitation will start to enter south coastal Southern New England most likely after 5pm, advancing from southwest to north/northeast as the day progresses and reaching the eastern SNE shorelines by approximately 7-8pm . A few sleet pellets cant be ruled out briefly but will quickly transition to plain rain. A wind driven heavy rain event will commence over all of SNE Tuesday eve and last right into mid afternoon Wednesday. Though I am not a member of the “TSA”, I can certainly see some flight delays or even cancellations, so do be prepared and have some patience if you are traveling out of one of the East Coast hubs. Overnight Wednesday into the wee hours of Thursday morning as low pressure moves off to the north of our area cold air on the back side will snap back into SNE and could bring an end to the precipitation with a few flakes flying around. Very dynamic storm with northern energy, southern Gulf of Mexico moisture and rich Atlantic tropical moisture. This is not your typical “coastal storm”, though to many folks its effects will seem much like that of a Nor'easter, the fact is the winds will never go to the northeast until the low reaches the US/Canada border. Another aspect that prevents this system from being a Nor'easter is the lack of a present cold high pressure system to the north of SNE. Nor'easters thrive off Low pressure development moving into cold high pressures to the north and the tight pressure gradient created by it and a low pressure working into it, and that simply is not there this go around. In fact , this storm system will be working off pressure gradient as well but from a west to east perspective, not south to north. This also means the that system is rather progressive with nothing to hold it at bay. All the flow from all directions around the periphery of low pressure takes this thing quickly up the coast and off into southeast Canada before it “bombs out" into a very formidable storm .
Below is the expected rainfall through the entire event from Tuesday pm -late Wednesday. It appears as though with all guidance in agreement that most of SNE is in for a widespread 2-4” of rain. This would be the single most in a storm since June ! Again, much need at the worst time. Funny how Mother Nature sticks it to us at times. The precipitation shield will move from SSW-NNE and with that trajectory its relentless rains over the same areas. Training of heavy downpours are likely and we surely could see street flooding along with big puddles. It would be a good idea to clear storm drains of leaves and waste while you can early on Tuesday. Also try to get up on the roof and get those leaves out of those gutters! It will help, trust me. We will be on the eastern side of the storm so there will be a rich Atlantic moisture feed/transport along with some nasty churning winds at mid and high levels which will be transported to the surface in heavy downpours and thunderstorms….Yes, thunderstorms! Only 48 hours removed from arctic air. Welcome to November in Southern New England. So below is my thinking on rainfall expectations. There certainly could be isolated higher amounts but just too difficult at this time to pinpoint exactly where they line up.
Wind will be the other issue and on the increase again after seeing damaging winds Sunday as early as Tuesday eve with sustained winds of 20-30 mph creeping in from south to north. Sustained winds will increase to 20-40 mph east of Worcester , Ma up and down SNE. Widespread wind gusts will go to 40-50 mph with max gust of 60-65 mph over southeast MA early to mid day Wednesday. Winds of this magnitude are certainly capable for damage to power line and tree’s and loose property objects.
Coastal flooding not a huge deal as this is not a Nor’easter but there could be minor splash over near the shores. Waves *will* be impressive though, especially southeast facing shores. Possibly as high as 10-15’ with some offshore SNE swell reaching 18’ ! The storm is out of here by Thanksgiving though leaving cold in its wake with high temperature back into in the upper 20’s and 30’s for highs with a gusty NW wind.
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