Another Winter Storm Bears Down on SNE

March did not roar in like a lion as it could have though indications that winter was going nowhere still hold true and now we have a potential major storm on our hands. The lack of confidence with this one is simply due to one on our more reliable models is not indicating as big as a snow threat and a low pass a bit farther to the south than the rest on the pack. The pattern has slowed enough for release of previous blocked storm and high hold to the north and now indicates a trip further north towards our area, and a slow trip at that and then a stall a bit further east than normal, though this should be a large storm .

WHAT IS LIKELY: Regardless of the slight model spread a few things look certain.

1. There will be a storm forming off the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday late afternoon and will grow into a very large storm system in size.
2. This is likely to be a prolonged event lasting Late Wednesday evening through the day Friday possibly. This prolonged period is due to a massive Greenland Block in place and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that will trap the storm from moving progressively.
3. Regardless if the storm takes a track a bit farther off to the south as one on our usually reliable computer models indicate, there will likely be an extended period of strong winds and perhaps damaging wind gusts near but not confined to coastal areas. Wind gusts will increase as early as Wednesday morning gusting to near 30 mph and only increasing thereafter eventually gusts will approach 50-55mph. This wind event will also be prolonged and caries with it the potential for some significant beach erosion.
4. Waves offshore will build 15-20 feet and that constant battering and push of water from the Atlantic Ocean is also likely to produce moderate to perhaps major coastal flooding for east and northeast facing shores during potentially 3 high tide cycles !
5. The storm will once again be loaded with Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Moisture, so a lot of liquid precipitation is expected with this storm
6. Those that stay all snow will have the potential for 1-2 Feet if the storm lives to its potential as is possible
7. There is likely to be mixing to work up near interstate 495 for a time and even plain rain for a time up to Mass pike and especially for Cape Cod and the Islands for much of the duration.

WHAT IS STILL BEING IRONED OUT:  Although we are now fairly close to the start on the event, it is kind of a breaking weather news story as I personally thought blocking would simply just be too strong and the storm would suppress mostly to south in the end. One model still suggest that to some degree, but has also started to trend to the north itself and so the alarm bell sounds !

1. Snowfall amounts for any given location throughout Southern New England at this time  are very difficult to pin down both in location and numbers. I do think most our area does see a plow able snow fall out of this when all said and done, except perhaps from the Cape Cod Canal points east and perhaps southeast Connecticut and Rhode Island. The highest potential exists from near Worcester MA into southeast New Hampshire where certainly either side on a foot on snow could fall. This will be a heavy wet snow for many and combined with the wind, power outages look to be a potentially BIG issue.
2. Where does the mix line setup if it does indeed?. Always tough to pin down or even verify when a model sends us guidance to its location. Looks like it could end up from a line from southwest Connecticut up through the Hartford Area to Providence to Boston as usually is the scenario most the times in this type of set up, though not a given.
3. Will mixing cut back on potential snow totals....As always it does though there is a ton of liquid to go around with this storm and precipitation .  A stronger storm can generate its own cold depending on the track. Its this Mix line and the intensity that will have to be further pinned down before a map is officially issued by myself. This all comes back to how close the Low center is to our area in the end . I hope that is as early as Mid-morning Tuesday .

So there is a brief rundown as to where we stand now. Coastal residents should start their routine coastal storm preparations and those farther Inland should start to prepare for possibly losing power anytime between Wednesday night and Late Friday time period. I will not leave you high and dry without an idea on how much snow may fall.. If less mixing, some could see a bit more, if more mixing some less..especially the immediate coast. (be sure to click on all images for full size views)

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for further updates   ~Anthony

<<<Wind Gust snapshot valid Thursday am

<<<<Potential Mix line

A look at the strong upstream blocking over the Northern Atlantic