As we wrap up a quite extended period of dry , above average temperature period of early December, a very active period of weather awaits for much of next week starting Sunday and also shows signs of this continuing right through much of December. Most this next week will be too mild in Southern New England for any snowfall of significance though very cold signals are being indicated starting next weekend and beyond. Below I will break down each event scheduled for the week and what may lie ahead as we welcome in the official Start to the Winter Solstice next weekend. (CLICK ON GRAPHIC FOR LARGER IMAGE)
Storm/Event One ..Sunday-Monday : Clouds and overrunning moisture will increase across our area this evening into the overnight as Low pressure now over the western Great Lakes moves towards our area Sunday. As it does so a new Low will form south of Southern New England during the morning hours of Sunday. There will be cold air that will be tough to budge initially so expect some light snow to break out for most our region after mid-morning . Those closer to coastal location may see a brief period of snow that will transition through some sleet before completely over to rain not long after. Further inland , the light snow burst and sleet combination will persist longer and the cold holds firmer for a longer period of time. Dry dew points in the interior will help in this as well with Evaporational Cooling expected as precipitation begins to fall, a brief drop back in temperatures is likely to occur. For this reason, we may see a few Winter Weather Advisories pop up Sunday Morning . There also is the likelihood as temps warm aloft as the precipitation enters that the snow/sleet combination inland may turn to a period of Freezing Rain before the eventual transition to rain as all layers warm by evening time. The most snow will fall in the Northern Berkshires of western Massachusetts and along the border of Vermont into southwest New Hampshire where 1-3” appear likely with a few locations possible to see a bit more depending on how long temps aloft stay cold enough. This should be until approximately 7pm Sunday evening. Precipitation is likely to come to a brief end during Monday morning before the next wave of low pressure approaches from the west/southwest
Storm 2 Monday pm through Weds: This storm will have a bit more juice with it but also have warmer air incorporated into it as it approaches and already mild air in place upon its arrival. Most of this storm will be rain, heavy at times and gusty winds from the east/southeast into the shores as Low Pressure is expected to pass right over or just off the Southern New England Coast. Important to note there still is minor disagreement on the eventual track and potential redevelopment of a new low off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Though most indications are a breezy Rainy event with possible mixing along or near the Route 2 corridor into southern Vermont and New Hampshire . This storm may carry the potential of some minor coastal flooding and beach erosion as well. Colder air will be pouring in briefly on the backside as the storm passes off to out NNE so there is a slight shot at a switch over to a period of snow. Will continue to keep eye on that.
Storm 3 Potential Friday through The Weekend: There is a 3rd storm potential which in the end could end up being the most potent out of the bunch. This storm , again is highly dependant on the track. Behind storm 2 , colder air will pour in so that complicates issue farther. More snow potential with this one, again especially across the interior. This system is 5-6 days away and lots of time for a different pattern to become establish due to the prior two storms. Little side note: Portions of Maine are in for 1-2 Feet of snow, perhaps near 30” for some through this period…Lots of Juice !
Beyond this , current indications are the coldest air of the season pours in and perhaps sets the stage for snowstorms for our area as we officially welcome The Winter Solstice in Here Dec 21st. One model shows a Christmas Eve-Christmas Day storm with another very potent coastal storm coming in December 27th.
So, though we saw a few minor snow events in November into early December, we have been dry and mild as of late leaving many asking “where is Winter again“? “Will this be a repeat of last year ??”… Lets let it officially start first ! How does that sound?. Also, if your worried that all this rain means it will continue through Winter, that’s simply a gut feeling and not true at this point. Back in December of 2010 a HUGE rainstorm occurred mid-month. After that, Winter arrived in a BIG way and we never looked back….No Panic yet snow lovers.
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