(CLICK ON ALL GRAPHICS FOR LARGER VIEW) A Blizzard is underway ! Just not here in Southern New England as many would wish, while others are just fine with this somewhat mild (depending on exact location) and breezy weather as of late. While in the long-range, there appears to be no major shift to the current pattern that has evolved over the past week or two which send most storms over or to the northwest of our area, there will be a few wrinkles in it that maybe cold enough and just at the right time to produce some wintery weather for us depending on storm development and the track and redevelopment potential as always.
Thursday looks very nice by mid-late December standards with a chilly morning start and perhaps some ocean effect clouds on Cape Cod with a few rain or snow showers early. For the rest of our area we will see sun and clouds with light winds and temperatures right around where they should be this time of year in the upper 30’s to low 40’s on average. Enjoy the peaceful day because Friday some big changes come in.
Friday as a strong low pressure system spins over the eastern Great Lakes , a new low will form near or over New England. This is a POTENT front passage and one that will bring with it a burst of strong to damaging winds, showers and downpours with the potential of a thunderstorm to our area. A Thunderstorm you ask? On the first official day of Winter?. That’s right and you don’t have to look far back to see the last time that occurred because it happened last year on December 21st. What an extremely odd coincidence, and may add new meaning to the term Starting off Winter with a “bang“. Behind the downpours, wind and potential thunder, temperatures will begin to crash as the winds shift behind the departing low and perhaps bring a quick change to snow western and central areas before most the moisture escapes to our north and northeast Friday evening.
So here are the finer details as I see them shaping up on Friday: Mainly light showers come in well ahead of the front before dawn Friday to southwest areas of Southern New England, progressing steadily to the northeast there after. Most the area will be in showers/downpours early afternoon ir late morning with perhaps a thin convective line affecting our area around or shortly after noon time that will bring strong to perhaps damaging winds gusting 45-55mph, perhaps a bit more. If we hit 60mph in any gusts associated with the downpours of thunder, a isolated Severe Thunderstorm warning cant be ruled out. (Bizarre) After that line crosses with the front we wil go into the dry sector before the cold air starts to charge in here from the WNW as the main vortex off to the west swings on though bringing with it MUCH colder air. Most in our area will see ½ -1’ of rain with a good possibility of a bit more throughout the SNE region.
Cold air comes pouring in starting Friday night both at the surface and especially aloft as the Vort max swings through and sets the stage with still a broad cyclonic flow over our area for the potential of snow flurries and snow showers falling for many on Saturday along with temperatures that will continue to fall on a breezy active WNW wind still. Remember entering in Winter with a bang?, well that is what might occur quite literally as this cold will stick around for a few days it appears.
The storm that exits Saturday will set off/up a trough near or just offshore into the late weekend and towards Christmas Eve. At the same time , a weak low may ride the trough and bring the shot and a bit of light snow to fall into Christmas Day ! Though please do not get hopes TOO high for that as most the time in that situation moisture stays suppressed to the south. Will certainly be keeping an eye on that along with signs now that the pattern will remain active but now possible with just enough cold air to our north to make it interesting. Our teleconnection indices remain fairly supportive of stormy weather with the North Atlantic Oscillation projected to remain negative along with the PNA steadily rising. Speaking of up north. Maine continues to be ground zero for snow as of now. Some mountains up there have already picked up FEET of snow and the Friday storm we should keep adding to those. That snow pack is important and will continued to be monitored. Thanks for reading. ~Anthony
If you missed its release Tuesday, Here is The “Southern New England Weather Probability of a White Christmas” this year
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